Is Bend Rising From the Ashes?

Two recent publications have the City of Bend rising to the top of their lists.

The Oregon Business Journal reported in an article titled “The Bend Housing Bounce” highlighted the Northwest Crossings neighborhood. Northwest Crossings has weathered the downturn better than most by providing well appointed new homes in a vibrant mixed use neighborhood. Northwest Crossings currently accounts for 21% of new housing permits issued for Bend. Joining Northwest Crossings are Yelas Constructions homes at Marken Heights and various builders in the Shevlin Pines development out toward Shevlin Park.

The Business Insider has an article “The 15 Best Housing Markets For The Next Five Years”

This article highlights 15 markets which are poised for growth over the next five years, listing Bend in the number one position. Their reasoning covers the dramatic decrease in home prices from the first quarter of 2007 and a strong median family income. It is exactly that drop in prices and a strong rental market that has brought buyers back to our market. Many see this as opportunity buy well, similar to Bend in the mid eighties. This rating comes with a word of caution in a side note about Bend’s continued high unemployment rate. The article predicts an annualized growth rate from 2011- 2016 of +11.9%.

Central Oregon offers a great lifestyle in a variety of styles, the things that made us popular before and during the boom years are still here waiting for you today. To get more information about what we have to offer feel free to contact me.

Ho Ho Ho Merry Christmas, Here are the Bend Market Trend Reports for November 2011

A friend queried me about the trend he was seeing in the Bratton report; he was concerned that the drop in the median price of Bend homes might be an ominous sign. How if we are bouncing along the bottom could the median values drop by so much? When you pull back and look at the bigger picture the market for homes above $225,000 has remained very soft while everything below that has been moving tremendously well.


This has skewered the numbers and perceptions of those who do not dig deeper for the cause. Are there a good number of homes available for sale above $225,000? Of course, are they selling? Not so much. Right now many people who might move up or those who want to sell feel the economic conditions are too unsettled for them to take the chance of making a move.

This trend also shows that those who are not intimidated by the current economic conditions are buying up the well valued homes. The greater concentration of these homes has been in the $225,000 and under price range. Many feel that in this price range should things fall a bit further that their losses would be minimal since the fall is incrementally smaller. An even greater pull is that many feel they will not see these same purchasing opportunities come our way again for some time.

As we move through the coming year the combination of a pent up need for people to move forward in their lives and economic conditions that should continue to stabilize will lead to a steady improvement in the median value of homes as the higher valued homes begin to sell once again.

To see the market trends for Bend follow the link
Bend Market Trends Report.

Bouncing Along the Bottom in Bend, Oregon... Real Estate Market Trends for October

Before you get into the holiday season you may want to check out the latest market trend reports. This is a great time to pick up property in Central Oregon.


Our local data belays what we often hear in the daily news, from the data in the reports it appears that we have stabilized for the moment. The amount of homes actively listed on the market hit a high in August and September and now is slipping back down as we head toward winter. Distressed homes have retreated as well during this period and now comprise 45% of the market with short sales being about 60% of the distressed category. As we slip back down in inventory for the winter months the overall trend has been fewer homes on the market. We are currently down sixty to one hundred actively listed homes from previous years.

Driving this stabilization trend is the continued strong interest from investors and first time home buyers in the under $250,000 class of properties. This has led to sellers receiving multiple offers on properties that represent good values and has them selling quickly. It has also been surprising to see so many cash buyers. With the tightened underwriting rules for financing properties many capable buyers are by passing today’s amazingly low interest rates and bringing cash to the table.

The investors we see coming into the market are looking at the super low vacancy rates for rental properties in the Bend area and calculating solid returns for the next few years. The other attraction is the remarkably low prices and good values on many properties. This has occurred as sellers have come back to reality of what their property is worth today and will be worth over the next few years.

The biggest hold up in the having the real estate market continue to grow is the lack of confidence that the local job market will improve and the national economy’s lingering stagnation. With the upcoming Presidential election the opportunity that our economic turmoil will turn around is slim. With housing being such a huge component of the national economy it would not be surprising to see continued new programs and new road blocks offered up by both parties to help sway voter confidence thus adding to the lack of confidence.

My take is that the market will stay the same undulating course over the next 18 months. Eventually Bend will see slight gains at first but as confidence returns so will Bends popularity. All of the things people from outside of Bend loved before are still here waiting for them and it is just a matter of time before those who hold the dream to move here act. When those who lust for Bend act on their dreams expect to see return to predictable positive gains in real estate.

Have a great Thanksgiving!!

Cheers,

Bill

Time to Fall Back... September Bend Market Trend Reports

September has now passed and the glory of fall colors is upon us. Central Oregon is ablaze with vibrant colors. The usual big storm that tends to shake and shed the trees of their foliage has passed us by leaving us with a spectacular fall. Cool clear nights warm and sunny days bless all those who venture outdoors this time of the year.

In many ways the local real estate market reflects the same, the bluster of activity expect from lenders renewing their pursuit of foreclosures has yet to materialize. Interest rates have remained low and stable with little blips upward, only to settle back down. Inventories of good homes at reasonable prices remains thin as the amount of properties listed dropped slightly from August. Right now with the low inventory on good homes it is not uncommon to have multiple offers on a property soon after it appears on the market.

September numbers across the board dropped from this year’s highs that were achieved in August. Distressed property sales in relation to total properties sold has remained in the forty percent range for the fourth month in a row. This is a welcome relieve from last year when they comprised sixty plus percent of all sales. Recently we have seen more foreclosure activity at the court house steps, these properties should appear back on the market toward the end of November.

This will be good news for investors and first time home buyers looking for good value properties. For others the uncertainty with the jobs market combined with concern for the stock market and its affect on retirement income have many buyers and sellers frozen. It could take getting past the upcoming election cycle before we see a return to confidence in the overall market.

Check out the Duke Warner Realty Market Trend Report, the Bratton Report, the Bratton Notice of Default Report and a new report put out by the Bratton Appraisal Group, the Distressed Sales Analysis Report at shopbendhomes.com.

It has been a summer of neglect for my blog page. I was shocked to see that my last entry was back in June of this year. I thought I had done a better job of keeping folks updates on the real estate trending for Bend.

To bring you all up to speed the quickest way to access this information is on my web site shopbendhomes.com. For today I am including the information for the Duke Warner Realty Bend Real Estate Trends, The Bratton Report and the Bratton Notice of Default Report.

What we have seen for this past summer is a market that has leveled out price wise and inventories of homes has shrunk. Finding a good well priced home under $300,000 has been a real chore for most folks. When reviewing the market trends you can see how active the lower end of the market has been while the upper reaches of the market remain sluggish. This is a trend I would expect to see through out the winter and baring a miraculous turn around in the economy this will continue well into next year. Possibly some political maneuvering for the Presidential election may bring some temporary muscle to the economy.

What we see and hear most is that Bend is not dead, the title wave of shadow inventory in foreclosed properties is not coming. There is no dobut that there will be some large swells to navigate through but there are many folks waiting for the right moment to make their move here. All of the events, activities, weather and prefered lifestyle that drew many folks to Bend over the last decade remain. The long term prognosis for Bend is good, interest rates are low and opportunities are slipping away.

Give me a call if you need some one to be your bird dog for properties. I am constantly searching for properties for my clients and would welcome the opportunity to work for you.    

   

May Market Trends Report

Once again I am tardy with the last month’s market trend reports from both Duke Warner Realty and the Bratton Report. Please accept my humble apologies.

Summer has brought a predictable uptick in the inventory around town for properties in the middle price range of the market. Finding good homes under $125,000 remains a challenge as most good ones are snapped up within days of being listed on the market.

Lenders are now feeling more confident about their abilities to foreclose on properties without legal consequences. With this new found confidence we saw a spike in re-filings of Notices of Default in April and May. It will most likely be late September before we see those homes hit the market as bank owned properties. Some of those homeowners have chosen not to wait and have entered their properties into the market as short sales. Right now short sales are providing some of the best opportunities in the Bend market for those who are patient.

If a friend or you need to buy or sell, short sale or traditional sale, rural or urban property or just need some information give me a call. I am ready and waiting to assist you in achieving your goals.

Bend Oregon Market Trends...

Despite all the doom and gloom we keep hearing about the housing market Bend's inventory keeps shrinking. It has been increasingly difficult to find the types of properties our clients are looking for throughout the Bend market. The current market is a great window of opportunity for traditional sellers with a great home that they can have reasonably priced.


Reaching a peak last August of 695 active listings for homes Bend, the inventory has now shrunk to 411 active listings. The result is more competition and multiple offers for the good homes that are well priced. Buyers who still feel that they are in the driver’s seat and are unwilling to make competitive offers are missing out.

There are many theories as to why the inventory has shrunk; one would be the recent legal rulings that have slowed the process for lenders to foreclose on financially distressed properties. This has resulted in a lower number of bank owned properties entering the market with some actually being pulled from the market. Previously the number of bank owned listings had hovered between the mid-sixties to low nineties that number has dropped to 29 active listings in March.

Interestingly enough the lenders legal issues may be what has spurred a renewed effort by these same lenders to be more accommodating toward borrowers choosing to short sale their homes. This is reflected in the increase in short sale listings which are up seven percent from February. Further proof would be the amount of short sales that have made it to the finish line with a fifty percent increase in completed transactions over February of this year. As long as the lenders remain willing to work with their borrowers short sales should remain a viable option for folks in financial difficulty and provide better than average price opportunities for the buyer who can wait out the process which continues to be refined and faster.

One should not wait though, already the sands are shifting once again, lenders are figuring out how to deal with their legal issues. Last week the Deschutes County Clerk’s Office had around 100 refilling of “notices of defaults” in one day. This could lead to an increase in inventory toward the summer months but the process still is cumbersome and takes ninety days at best to reach the point of an auction. Short sales and loan modifications will slow or cause postponements of many of these auction dates. Of the properties that do make it to market, I would imagine that the lenders will maintain their previous levels of inventory and not further erode property values by flooding the market.

As folks find they want to get on with their lives, they will choose not wait for the return to previous market values. They will adjust their expectations and find a market that is starting to see pricing that is leveling out. Buyers on the other hand are going to find more competition for the best bargains and will need to well prepared to secure the property.

Click here to check out the market trend numbers for yourself.

Do not hesitate to contact me if you need assistance in navigating today's market.