Duke Warner and Bratton Market Reports for May 2012

After several weeks of unusually warm weather the Central Oregon region has returned to a more typical weather pattern. Unlike our weather our real estate market continues its phenomenal hot paced recovery. Both the Duke Warner Market Trends Report and the Bratton Report illustrate the continued strengthening of the Bend, Oregon real estate market.

The current refrain from my clients is “I could just kick myself!! I could have had this same property for so much less last year…”. While it is true that as little as six months ago you could have purchased a property for quite a bit less than you can today, there is  not much use in sulking as that ship has set sail. By not acting soon you could be saying the same thing next year at this time but with higher interest rates. Higher interest rates equal less home buying power for the average buyer.

The Federal Reserve has committed to purchasing mortgage back securities until spring of next year. Their 40 Billion dollar commitment is helping hold down the interest rates to near record lows. Should the real estate market and the national economy continue to strengthen it will be unlikely that the Fed will continue to prop up the market. The market would then return to a free market situation where rates are sure to rise.  

Today’s low rates combined with a tight inventory of desirable homes under $350,000 have many feeling like they are experiencing 2004 -2005 all over again. While I do not think we are on the same path history does tend to repeat itself. The run up we are currently experiencing should level off in the fall going into winter. Many of the construction permits for new homes pulled this spring will be completed and into the market. This will be combined with the return of the average home seller who feels the market has stabilized enough to put their home on the market and get a decent price for their home.

One other factor unique to Oregon could be the return of the big banks releasing more distressed properties to the market. By late June the 2013 Oregon legislative session will have ended. In reaching the end they should have reached their conclusion of re-writing the mortgage mediation bill. The current incarnation (SB 558) is to include judicial foreclosures in addition to the non-judicial foreclosures. Non-judicial foreclosures where covered in SB 1552 from last year.

Contributing to resolution of how distressed property foreclosures will be handled in Oregon will be the Oregon Supreme Court handing down their ruling on the legality of MERS handling foreclosures on behalf of the lenders. One way or another the big lenders should have an idea of the path they will take to resolve their inventory of distressed properties by summer’s end. This should result in a return of bank owned (REO) homes in a decent quantity to our market place. 

    

Bottom line rates are low; the economy is improving and now is a great time to invest in the future of Bend and you.

#centraloregon, #bendoregon, #dukewarner, #billpanton, #shopbendhomes

Now Serving Duke Warner Market Trends Report for Bend, Oregon Residential Properties October 2012

You have heard recently many times how tight the inventory for home in Bend has become. This is best illustrated when you compare the year to year numbers. When comparing the year to year Duke Warner Market Trends Reports it appears that we maintained a relatively stable number of listings until July when Oregon Senate Bill 1552, a bill that provides distressed homeowners the opportunity for mediation with their lender was enacted. About this same time the effects of a February $25 billion settlement with the big five mortgage servicers over a lawsuit for wide spread mortgage fraud started to kick in along with a Oregon Circuit Court ruling that lenders were required to provide the trail of deed recordings for each tranching of a mortgage.


As mentioned above starting in July our inventory of active listings had dropped by 127 over the previous year. This trend has remained increasingly consistent each of the following months. This month we dropped 217 listings below last year’s number for October.

Contributing to the drop in available inventory has been our strong sales numbers this year, in every month excepting January there has been positive gains in our unit sales numbers as well as dollar volume.

The tight inventory has created is what several of my colleagues have referred to as a micro bubble. As you have heard me mention in previous blogs the current market has many homes, especially the ones that are competitively priced, receiving multiple offers driving up the price of these homes. By no means is this similar to the previous bubbles price run up of 2004-2007. It is a small recovery from a precipice fall of the previous bubble market.

What this means for you if you are a homeowner wishing to sell, strike while the iron is hot! With interest rates remaining low for the near future and well into the next year the amount of willing buyers will remain strong. Competition for the better homes that are priced well will also remain strong. I would anticipate that come late next spring we will see a return to our local real estate market of the homeowners who have sat on the sidelines waiting for the recovery to near its completion. It remains to be seen when that day will come but people are going to see opportunities to get the fairest price for their homes in quite some time and will want to move forward. As these homes return to the market look for an increase in the traditional inventory.

Bolstering the traditional inventory this coming spring will be the number of homes available through the short sale process. In a recent Bank of America seminar their representatives shared that short sales will be the big fives preferred method of disposing of distressed properties. Short selling distressed properties will help them avoid the lengthy, messy and complicated world of judicial foreclosures. At this point their strategy has yet to affect our local market as the number of actively listed homes available as short sales sits at 29, with 47 other listings having offers on them but the sellers are accepting back up offers. These numbers are way off the peak when it was not uncommon to have 60 – 100 homes available through the short sale process.

There is much to consider before jumping in to the market these days. If you are looking for a broker who can represent you in either a traditional or distressed sale, contact me I would be glad to assist you in making an informed decision on what is the best path for you.

October 2012 Market Report for the NorthWest Crossing Neighborhood in Bend, Oregon

 

As mentioned in a post two days ago, I am going to attempt to bring you a monthly activity report that should keep you up to speed with how real estate is doing in your favorite Bend, Oregon neighborhoods. Today we are going to focus on the ever popular NorthWest Crossing neighborhood.

October marked the first full month of fall and winter is knocking on our door today with spitting snow. The last of the brilliant foliage colors of this fall are barely hanging on, soon it will be the beauty of the bare trees shrouded in white.

NorthWest Crossing seems to know no bounds when it comes to real estate sales. Popular as ever, fourteen homes have been sold this past month. Many of the newest homes have sold prior to their completion. The most popular of the new construction has been on NW Frazer Street in the eastern quadrant of Northwest Crossing. Five out of the fourteen homes sold last month were on NW Frazer. It is interesting to note that all of the homes sold on NW Frazer are single level homes and the two active listings for this street are both two story.

Several of the folks I have talked with that are moving into this portion of Northwest Crossing have reached a point in life were they are looking to downsize. Most all prefer not to have stairs to navigate as they get older. This speaks to the diversity of Northwest Crossing, here you have everything from families with plenty of kids to families where the kids have moved on that prefer to simplify their lifestyles. Come to any of the festivals or other events commonly held in the commercial district of Northwest Crossing and you will experience the diversity first hand. This is a wonderfully vibrant part of Bend.

Looking to the future Northwest Crossing has begun to develop the last of the parcels which lay on the eastern fringes of the neighborhood. It is conceivable that within the next two years or less the eastern portion of the development will be filled in. Looking to the future Northwest Crossings developers are solidifying their plans for the western reach of the development. Look for more information on this sector over the next year.

If you have questions about Northwest Crossing or the Bend real estate market and need a source for information, please contact me, I am glad to assist you in making informed decisions about Bend.

                                      List Price                                        Average
              Listings       Low          High     Average    Median  Price/Sqft  DOM
Active            23    $309,900  $749,900   $488,970   $469,900     $212            64
New                8     $389,900  $699,500   $519,625   $479,900     $229            26
Contingent    0
Pending        4     $299,900  $649,900   $475,200   $475,200     $230            68
Sold               14    $215,000  $579,778   $415,063   $415,500     $226         159

October 2012 Market Report for the Broken Top Neighborhood in Bend, Oregon

I am going to attempt to bring you a monthly activity report that should keep you up to speed with how real estate is doing in your favorite Bend, Oregon neighborhoods. At this point this is just an experiment with Broken Top as my first guinea pig.

October marks the first full month of fall, we had a pretty moderate weather pattern for the month which helped keep buyer interest high in most areas of Bend. The foliage colors this year were also a blessing adding some spectacular color to the landscape.

Now that the election cycle has passed and we will soon have a bit more clarity of where we are heading for the next few years, we should start to see more people decide to move on with their lives. Moving up, moving on, downsizing you name it the demand to make these moves has been pent up and I think folks are ready to get on with life.

Neighborhoods of the stature of Broken Top are beginning to move along but in a slower fashion than neighborhoods that have homes of lesser value. Buyers and sellers in this price point have been reluctant to join the recovery party. Sales have tailed off in October when compared to September. In September the Broken Top community had six homes sold compared to October’s single home. The neighborhood will carry a decent inventory of homes in to our winter sales period at fourteen. Generally once we get into the winter holiday period, starting with Thanksgiving and ending after New Years, fewer folks will want the inconvenience of having their homes listed. For staging purposes the holidays are a great time of the year to have your home available for touring since many homes are dressed up for the holidays. It may be the one time of the year you can get away with a slightly cluttered home.

If you have questions about the Bend real estate market and need a source for information, please contact me, I am glad to assist you in making informed decisions about Bend.

                                             List Price                                   Average

             Listings     low         high         average      median     price/sqft     DOM

Active         17   $349,000 $1,950,000   $935,632     $945,000      $233      206

New             3   $475,000    $549,000    $512,450    $512,450      $186        23

Contingent    2   $639,000    $799,900    $719,450    $719,450      $168      325

Pending        4   $329,000    $990,000    $525,750    $392,000      $186        99

Sold             1   $358,000    $358,000    $358,000    $358,000      $190       135

The Bratton Report for September 2012 is ready for you…

This month’s Bratton Report is similar in content to the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends Report. The combined information from both reports shows a picture of a real estate market were some key indicators are down for the month after two months of steady growth. The slowdown is about a month early when compared to previous years.

In this Bratton Report we find that the median price of homes in the Bend, Oregon market has fallen, the days on the market have increased and the number of sales for the month has fallen. The September numbers are more typical of what we traditionally see in October.

After rising the past two months the median price of a home here in Bend has shrunk back to $220,000. This is a level seen many times over the past few years, though at that those times it had been the high mark for those respective periods. Fall of the last four years has led the way for a decline in the median that last until the first of the year. This annual hibernation has averaged a decline of 20%. Should the pattern hold, we should see a median sale price around $175,000 by December.

Once the distraction of the holidays and election season have passed expect the pricing along with the other market indicators slowly build until the spring months when the market should accelerate building to the summer highs. This is a trend that has held true all but a very few years regardless of the economic or political climate. The exception being the red hot winter market of 2005 which heralded market conditions that hopefully will not be seen anytime soon.

My expectations are that when the market returns for its annual upturn after the first of the year we will see continued strength in our market. Bend, Oregon is and always will be a place where folks want to live and play. This desirability will keep us on a trajectory of having a sustainable even growth real estate market.

For more information on today’s market conditions or to list/sell your property fell free to contact me.

The August Bratton Report for Central Oregon is now available…

It is not hard to feel as if we are finally climbing back to a more consistent real estate market here in Central Oregon. Home builders are once again pouring foundations and the local lumber yard trucks are rumbling down the streets once again. For the first summer in quite some time building is taking place outside of NorthWest Crossing. Drive through any section of town and you should be able to find a new home under construction.


This month’s Bratton Report shows that the median price for a home in Bend has risen for the third straight month and the eleventh time in the last year. The median price of $250,000 has not been seen since October of 2008. At that time we were still falling from our giddy high, sliding down and off the cliff into a financial nightmare that bore the recession of the past few years. Accompanying the rise of the median price is its sister, price per square foot, to $130. This too is a level not seen since the fall of 2008.

In a similar manner the sales numbers for the month hit a pace not seen since August of 2006. The numbers climb to just above the steady 170 range of the last few months to 191. One number that rose slightly for the season is the days on market for the average sale bouncing up to 91 days. This might be a reflection of the lack of inventory we have experiencing throughout the summer. As the number of homes available has dwindled buyer’s are now reaching out to properties previously thought to be over priced or having undesirable qualities.

Redmond appears to be on a similar path with the median price of a home rising to $155,000, a level not seen since 2009. Price per square foot has been on the increase here as well, rising for the fifth straight month. The sales numbers for Redmond appear to be in a consistent pattern, bouncing between 40 - 70 homes per month with last month coming in at 61. As with Bend the days on market has increased, this too could be attributed to the lack of inventory.

What Redmond is not seeing to this point is the return of home builders, building permits remain flat and in the single digits. If the sales numbers remain strong and Redmond can see some growth in jobs I would expect a return to new construction next summer. This will be aided if Bend market remains strong opening up Redmond as a more affordable option.

Distressed properties once the fuel for listings in our area, has now dried up for the time being with the enactment of Senate Bill 1552. With the mediation component of this bill in play I would not expect to see an influx of new short sales until early winter at the earliest and spring for foreclosures to return to the courthouse steps. There are many working parts in this bill and it is going to take some time for the lenders, homeowners and the state to figure out how to best work through this process. Once these distressed properties find their way back into the market I would not expect a flood new listings at bargain prices. Instead we will see a steady but diminishing flow with pricing that has the occasional gem amongst them.

For now the trends are in our favor, recovery is close but fragile. This falls politics and the decisions that follow through the winter could put all of our gains in the dumpster. One thing is certain the Central Oregon market is resilient. Central Oregon has too many great qualities that folks from outside our area admire and adore to be kept down for too long.

Now Serving Duke Warner Realty's February Bend Market Trends Report

Duke Warner Real Estate Trend Report is now available on my web site http://www.shopbendhomes.com/ .  I should have the Bratton Report available in just a few days, once it is released.

February’s report shows that we are continuing to see a decline of available listed home. The decline this month is slight with ten fewer homes actively marketed. We actually had more new listings this February than the previous month but with the market heating up were able to sell more homes.

The competition for good homes under $200,000 is getting pretty stiff, last weekend there was one newly listed home that received 31 offers on the first weekend. Others are not quite so dramatic but still are garnering plenty of attention from potential buyers. It will be interesting to see if this new found competition will lead to an influx of traditional sellers in the spring and summer selling months that are just around the corner.

Another trend to watch that could support the thought that we have reached the bottom of this downturn is if the amount of price reductions each month continues to decrease. This number has continued to fall as sellers are coming to market with a more realistic idea of what their properties are worth in today’s market. This in turn should help sellers get there properties sold in a quicker fashion.

We are still waiting for the much vaunted shadow inventory to hit the market. Many of my colleagues are in agreement that this may not happen in great quantity here in Bend. The recent court battles over robo- signing by the big lenders has been resolved for the most part and lenders have re-filed notices of default with the county but the amount of filings are nothing like we have seen in the past few years. What we will most likely see from these new filings is an increase in the number of homeowners that attempt a short sale and eventually a few more bank owned listings.

As of this writing the current number of homes actively listed as short sales is 46. On the bank owned side our inventory is down to 33 homes stick built homes. The number of homes in the bank owned category over the past couple of years had fluctuated between the high seventies and the low nineties. The blip from homes that are currently receiving their notices of default will hit the court house steps early this summer. As this passes we may see increase in the amount of bank owned homes going into the winter months.

The wild cards to the upcoming spring and summer selling season are the Presidential elections (with all their promises and rhetoric) this fall, the forecasted higher gas prices that should affect the overall economy and the stability of the European economy. With little control over any of these, I think those of us with the means will move forward with their lives and take advantage of the favorable real estate market conditions in Central Oregon property.

If a friend or you would like a personal assistant for your Central Oregon property endeavors I am available and look forward to hearing your goals.

Come and Get It….December Market Trend Reports for Bend, Oregon

The holiday season brought moderate success for retailers as people seem to be ready for some good news and are tired of the same old doom and gloom. For the housing market in Bend the news has remained the same for the past few months.


Going back to August of 2011 the sales numbers have been remarkably similar in all price categories with home under $325,000 leading the way for homes sold. With all the media coverage of a swollen distressed homes market our numbers representing the current inventory just do not support such coverage locally. The inventory numbers continue to sink with just over 500 homes offered in Bend, as recently as this past August that number exceeded 600.

By far the most active segment of the market remains homes priced $225,000 and under. This price range tends to help satisfy both the first time home buyer and the investor who is looking for affordable properties that will generate a positive return. With the occupancy rate for rental properties remaining low (around 4%), we will continue to see multiple offers on well priced homes under $325,000 as they tend to be the ones that pencil out the best for the investor who has the means to pick up these homes.

Currently 276 homes are listed over $325,000 and in this category there are some great values, they just take a little more time to discover but there is little competition for them.

As the world economic markets remain unstable look for that to affect our mortgage rates as investors look to the relatively safe Dollar and our bonds as a haven for their money. Their incoming funds may lead to a slow rise in mortgage interest rates. If rates raise look for more buyers to get off the fence and take advantage of the historic low rates currently offered. With the current low inventory of desirable homes expect the competition for those homes to increase.

To view the Market Trend Reports for Bend click here.

Ho Ho Ho Merry Christmas, Here are the Bend Market Trend Reports for November 2011

A friend queried me about the trend he was seeing in the Bratton report; he was concerned that the drop in the median price of Bend homes might be an ominous sign. How if we are bouncing along the bottom could the median values drop by so much? When you pull back and look at the bigger picture the market for homes above $225,000 has remained very soft while everything below that has been moving tremendously well.


This has skewered the numbers and perceptions of those who do not dig deeper for the cause. Are there a good number of homes available for sale above $225,000? Of course, are they selling? Not so much. Right now many people who might move up or those who want to sell feel the economic conditions are too unsettled for them to take the chance of making a move.

This trend also shows that those who are not intimidated by the current economic conditions are buying up the well valued homes. The greater concentration of these homes has been in the $225,000 and under price range. Many feel that in this price range should things fall a bit further that their losses would be minimal since the fall is incrementally smaller. An even greater pull is that many feel they will not see these same purchasing opportunities come our way again for some time.

As we move through the coming year the combination of a pent up need for people to move forward in their lives and economic conditions that should continue to stabilize will lead to a steady improvement in the median value of homes as the higher valued homes begin to sell once again.

To see the market trends for Bend follow the link
Bend Market Trends Report.

November Market Trend Reports for Bend, Oregon now available....

Just in time for the holiday's the numbers for last month are now available at shopbendhome.com .


The under $225,000 remains the hottest portion of our market with investors and first time home buyers leading the way. Those who have hesitated in putting their offers on these homes are finding themselves on the outside looking in and are learning to bring strong offers to the table quickly. For the month the under $225,000 range there were 81 homes in a pending sales status and 69 homes sold. This makes the third month in a row the inventory for homes in this range has held to under a three month supply.

The rest of the market has slowed with a little more strength showing up in the $325,000 to $425,000 range with rise in the number of pending status for sales while actual sales have dropped off slightly.

In the overall market the list price to sales price ratio has flattened out to a 2% difference, showing that sellers and buyers are getting closer in their expectations for what a property should sell.

For winter buyers there are great values being brought to the table by sellers who are in the $325,000 and up price range. Their homes have been on the market a bit longer and they tend to have had the most room to give a little in their pricing expectations and have adjusted accordingly. With interest rates continuing their slow climb upwards this winter could present some of the best opportunities for those looking to move up in the level of home they could purchase.

Enjoy dissecting the numbers and have a fabulous holiday season!!!

Bend Oregon Market Trends...

While neglecting my blogging duties of late I have not posted the market trend reports for the last two months. If you visit my new website shopbendhomes.com under the Area Information tab you can find the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends reports dating back to June of this year and the Bratton Market Trend reports dating back to August.

Sorry for the inconvience but the web site provides a more complete platform for sharing this information.

Interest rates and opportunity...

If you were in Bend the last time we saw the housing market take a tumble, you would have witnessed scene reminiscent of today’s struggles. Many watched as the homes they purchased in the late 1970’s and early 80’s fall in value by as much as 40%. Such a dramatic drop in values presented those with the means the opportunity for some incredible bargains, which they turned into huge profits in later years. Most folks who wanted to purchase these bargains found them unobtainable as interest rates soared into double digits preventing most from taking advantage of what was at that time the “opportunity of a lifetime”.


As history has repeated itself and “opportunities of a lifetime” are once again plentiful. Your advantage in this go around, interest rates! What once crippled the housing industry has swung the other direction to a point so low one would not have imagined it possible just a few short years ago. Since late April interest rates are at historic lows and hover below 5%. As this week comes to a close rates have remained steady with a thirty year fix rate loan coming in at 4.72%. While under writing standards are as tough as they have ever been, we are seeing folks take advantage of today’s market to seize what will be tomorrows “I wish I would have bought that…” moment.

Many industry experts had anticipated a rise in rates this past spring, yet with the stumbling of the European financial markets our bond markets have remained a strong value for investors to invest their money. Common sense would say that as the markets stabilize interest will slowly begin to climb. As the rates climb the window of affordability for buying will shrink, the ability to snap up properties at a great value may slip away.

Will you be one of those that follow past cries saying “I could have bought that property five years ago for…”? While our market will not see rapid appreciation any time soon, now is the time to buy low so in five years you will be the one selling high.

Bend, Oregon Real Estate Trends April 2010

Residential
Price Range	Number Active		Number New	Number Pending	Number Reduced		Number Sold			Avg SP/LP		Avg DOM	Months of Inventory
$125,000 - $225,000	227		95	108	86		71			99%		133	3.2
$225,100 - $325,000	131		49	43	31		27			98%		166	4.9
$325,100 - $425,000	103		37	25	17		14			96%		257	7.4
$425,100 - $525,000	58		13	9	20		6			95%		350	9.7
$525,100 - $625,000	35		9	7	18		2			54%		270	17.5
$625,100 & up	98		21	5	22		8			90%		201	12.3
Total/ Average	652		224	197	194		128			89%		230	9
	Active		$125-$225	$225-$325	$325-$425		$425-$525			$525- $625		$625 & up	Total
	5/1/10		227	132	105		58			35		98	655
Residential with Acreage
Price Range	Number Active		Number New	Number Pending	Number Reduced		Number Sold			Avg SP/LP		Avg DOM	Months of Inventory
$125,000 - $225,000	36		7	9	15		6			94%		221	6
$225,100 - $325,000	31		5	3	8		0
$325,100 - $425,000	25		6	1	3		2			97%		103	12.5
$425,100 - $525,000	21		5	2	7		0
$525,100 - $625,000	11		1	0	4		3			93%		209	3.7
$625,100 & up	63		9	0	9		0
Total/ Average	187		33	15	46		11			95%		178	7
	Active		$125-$225	$225-$325	$325-$425		$425-$525			$525- $625		$625 & up	Total
	5/1/10		36	31	25		21			11		63	187
Bare Land
Price Range	Number Active		Number New	Number Pending	Number Reduced		Number Sold			Avg SP/LP		Avg DOM	Months of Inventory
$125,000 - $225,000	115		20	23	25		12			91%		177	9.6
$225,100 - $325,000	80		7	1	14		3			90%		117	26.7
$325,100 - $425,000	66		1	1	7		1			100%		254	66
$425,100 - $525,000	28		3	0	1		0
$525,100 - $625,000	10		1	0	1		0
$625,100 & up	19		0	0	1		0
Total/ Average	318		32	25	49		16			94%		183	34
	Active		$125-$225	$225-$325	$325-$425		$425-$525			$525- $625		$625 & up	Total
	5/1/10		117	81	66		28			10		19	321

This report came out a little jumbled as I am still learning the in and outs of moving information into my blog page. If you have any questions about this report or would like the full version sent to you in a PDF format, call or email me. I would be glad to send one over to you.