March 2013 Duke Warner Market Trends Report

Today was snow globe day in Bend this morning we looked like one of those snow globes that turn upside down to have all of the snowflakes cover the village in the globe. Goes to show how spring weather in Central Oregon can through myriad of conditions on any given day. This morning there was an inch and a half of snow on the ground. Now I can see the blossoming tree across the street.

Just like spring flowers there have been many new listings budding out. With our market being slightly heated up like a warm spring day there are many folks out pruning the new blossoms. According to our Duke Warner Market Trends Report  the Bend market had 230 new property listings this month but the bump in the overall number of active listings available was slight. The pruning was achieved through the pending sales and sold properties; both showed a healthy increase in their numbers. March produced sales of 155 homes versus 100 homes in February being sold. This is a close match to March of 2012 when 153 homes were sold. With the amount of interest in purchasing homes this year we should at least mirror last year if not see a healthy increase in sales activity this summer. 

Follow this link Duke Warner Market Trends Report and Bratton Report for this month and prior month’s history of activity. If you have questions about the Bend real estate market and need a source for information, please contact me, Bill Panton.  I am glad to assist you in making informed decisions about Bend and Central Oregon.

#centraloregon, #bendoregon, #dukewarner, #billpanton, #shopbendhomes

The Bratton Report for September 2012 is ready for you…

This month’s Bratton Report is similar in content to the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends Report. The combined information from both reports shows a picture of a real estate market were some key indicators are down for the month after two months of steady growth. The slowdown is about a month early when compared to previous years.

In this Bratton Report we find that the median price of homes in the Bend, Oregon market has fallen, the days on the market have increased and the number of sales for the month has fallen. The September numbers are more typical of what we traditionally see in October.

After rising the past two months the median price of a home here in Bend has shrunk back to $220,000. This is a level seen many times over the past few years, though at that those times it had been the high mark for those respective periods. Fall of the last four years has led the way for a decline in the median that last until the first of the year. This annual hibernation has averaged a decline of 20%. Should the pattern hold, we should see a median sale price around $175,000 by December.

Once the distraction of the holidays and election season have passed expect the pricing along with the other market indicators slowly build until the spring months when the market should accelerate building to the summer highs. This is a trend that has held true all but a very few years regardless of the economic or political climate. The exception being the red hot winter market of 2005 which heralded market conditions that hopefully will not be seen anytime soon.

My expectations are that when the market returns for its annual upturn after the first of the year we will see continued strength in our market. Bend, Oregon is and always will be a place where folks want to live and play. This desirability will keep us on a trajectory of having a sustainable even growth real estate market.

For more information on today’s market conditions or to list/sell your property fell free to contact me.

Spring is in the air...Duke Warner Market Trends Report for April and more...

Wow, this is what spring looks like in Central Oregon… the Rhododendrons are beginning to bloom, the trees and grass are green once again and the sun being out is a regular event, it is has been warm and wonderful outside. This may be the spring season we have been waiting for, one that sees warm days and sunshine instead of the endless winter of last two years. So far the spring skiing/biking/yard work has been fantastic with sun filled weekends for the last month and a half.

With the start of spring we have seen only a slight increase in available homes. According to our Duke Warner Market Trends Report at the end of April we had 405 homes on under one acre that were actively marketed in Bend. As of this writing we have jump slightly to 457 homes. On this beautiful Monday morning it is past noon and we have yet to see one new listing hit the Bend market for the day.

If you are a property owner that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the doom and gloom to end possibly this is your time to spring forward. Interest rates remain low at today’s rate of 3.85%. This is not likely to change this summer for a variety of reasons. Of course with the low inventory there is less competition from other properties. This too is unlikely to change over the summer as lenders have been slow to process distressed properties. Oregon’s SB1552 a bill designed to end dual tracking by the larger lenders and require the lenders to mediate with their borrowers is likely to slow the processing of distressed properties even further.

On the flip side there are still opportunities out there for buyers. While bank owned properties have decreased for the time being, the leading value category is in homes being short sold. It is true that short sales can be a pain and have a reputation for taking months to complete. For the buyer who can wait out the process they represent a segment of the market that has the greatest value. Today there are 49 short sale and 27 bank owned homes that are actively marketed in Bend. These numbers have decreased dramatically from years past adding to the decrease in our inventory.

Time will tell if the lenders ever get a handle on how to process the large number of homes that have been foreclosed (or are in the process of foreclosing). For now there are plenty of properties that are sitting out there waiting for someone to finish processing them so they can return to the market. Until then if you are going to buy it would be best to have a great lender on your side, come well armed with an approval letter from them and know your limits. If you like a property weigh the pros and cons carefully, if it is a sound and well priced property consider making your offer at the asking price or risk missing out to those who will. This seems strange considering how there are still so many property owners who cannot sell their homes but many of those are in their position due to price or location.

If you or someone you know needs assistance with properties in Bend and Central Oregon, give me a call or send me an email. I am glad to assist and referrals are always appreciated.

The March Bratton Report for Bend, Oregon…

The March 2012 Bratton Report for the Bend real estate market was released over the weekend. The report confirms much of what was covered in my previous blog detailing the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends Report.


Both reports show a good size jump in the number of properties sold last month, a trend that appears to be continuing into this April. The hot classes are properties priced between $100,000 and $150,000, closely followed by the $150,000 to $200,000 range. With such strong movement in the lower price range look for these trends trickle upward and help the mid range priced homes sell this summer.

Fueling much of the buying is the tight rental market for Bend homes, currently running at 4.2% according to annual rental report release recently by the Central Oregon Rental Association. This is leading to investors returning to the market to snap up good homes that are well priced. Many of these homes are distressed properties either being bank owned or homeowners short selling their properties.

Predictably this competition is drying up the inventory of available homes. As of this writing there are 32 bank owned and 62 short sale homes actively listed. It is expected that the short sale listings will increase as we march closer to the July 1st implementation of Oregon House Bill 1552.

In case you have not followed Oregon HB 1552 it is intended to end the dual tracking policies of the larger lenders. With a three month implementation window from the bills inception there is much that is not known on how this bill will affect homeowners in distress. The bill calls for homeowners and lenders to participate in mediation to arrive at a solution that will allow the homeowner relief through loan modification, short sale, deed-in-lieu and lastly foreclosure.

This bill primarily directed at Oregon’s non-judicial foreclosures. Oregon allows lenders to pursue foreclosure through non-judicial and judicial proceedings. Lenders traditionally have taken the non-judicial procedure because of its simplicity and relatively quick timeline. With the new requirements placed on lenders there is a strong possibility that lenders may now pursue foreclosure through the judicial process. This will allow lenders to retain their rights to pursue any deficiency tied to the debt beyond the foreclosure. Another benefit to the lender in the judicial foreclosure is the short notification timelines, the question will be if the procedure timelines and avoiding the mediation process will be enough to offset the 180 day “Right of Redemption” period required in all judicial foreclosures.

Either way this breaks expect to see an influx of “Notices of Default” filed before the July 1st date, this in turn should create a wave of short sale listings and a bump to our inventory. The question how big will the wave be? And how far will it travel?

Duke Warner Realty Market Trends for March are out!!

There are good signs that our real estate market is stabilizing and a recovery for the region has begun. If our two larger markets Bend and Redmond remain strong it should be a matter of time before our smaller markets like Prineville and south Deschutes County follow suit.


The market for homes under $225,000 is getting more and more competitive, not just in Bend but Redmond too. Redmond is selling homes under $125,000 as fast as they come onto the market. If you are going to buy in this class you better be prepared to act quickly as most well priced homes are receiving multiple offers. If you do not have a mortgage person guiding you on this process use this link to a list of mortgage brokers that have done well for our clients in the past.

For the second month in a row the number of homes that have taken a price reduction has fallen. This trend holds sway mostly in our hot categories with homes under $325,000. The categories above $325,000 are holding relatively steady in terms of price and quantities of homes available with a slight improvement in the number of homes sold.

Overall our inventory has slipped below 400 homes actively listed for sale. At any one time there is an average of 40 bank owned properties and 60 short sales that are actively listed for sale, both of these numbers have been on a downward trend but appear to have stabilized. It will be interesting to see how the recently passed Oregon House Bill 1552 which goes into effect in late June and was design to provide relief and clarity for distressed homeowners affects our distressed sales market. There are a variety of opinions on how the lenders are going to react but there is nothing decisive to report yet.

Builders too are feeling confident in the direction of our local market, last month was had the second highest number of new home permits being issued in the past twelve months. To see the most dramatic illustration of these new homes head out to NorthWest Crossing were more than a dozen new homes are under construction.

Click on the city of your preference to see this month’s Duke Warner Market Trend Report. The Bratton report will follow once it is released.

Bend       Redmond

My Tardy Bend, Oregon Market Trends Report for January 2012

Once again I am tardy with last month’s market trend reports for Bend, Oregon.

Things are looking better here for the real estate market in Bend, Oregon. Once again we are hitting the top of a couple of “Best of Lists”. Check out these two links from the past month,

Mount Bachelor uphill from 'Beer City USA'   seattletimes.nwsource.com

http://adventure.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/trips/best-ski-towns-photos/

Bend continues to be one of the finest places to live, work and play. Local Pete Alport has put together a short Youtube video piece that helps define why so many of us choose to live here. 360 Degrees of Mt. Bachelor by Pete Alport www.youtube.com

Our local real estate market continues to recover as we bounce along the bottom. As mentioned in this blog previously it is my humble opinion that we have hit the bottom of the market. My observation through hindsight is that we bottomed around the spring of 2009 and have been bouncing up and down in small increments for the last three years.

Currently new listings are on the rise but our inventory continues to shrink. Last month there were 22 new listings above the previous month, yet overall inventory of residential homes in Bend dropped by 73 to 432 homes.

Of these listings distressed properties continue to have a smaller presence in our market. As of today (2/21/12) there are 41 bank owned, 48 short sale and 353 traditional sale residential properties actively listed. Of course this is leading to quite a bit of competition for the better priced homes. We still continue to see the seller who believes they need to recover a good portion of their investment made back in the hay days of 2004 -2006 but more often folks are coming around to the reality that those dollars are gone for the foreseeable future.

With that said now is the time to take action!! If you have been sitting of the fence waiting for someone to declare we have hit the bottom, it has now been declared so get off the fence. Interest rates are low but will not stay there for much longer, home prices are still low but our selection is limited. We see incredible properties all the time; they just do not last long. So if you are jumping in to the market come prepared. Have your funding squared away, talk to a good lender; get pre-approved for your loan. I have a couple of very highly regard mortgage specialist I can recommend. If you are a cash buyer have your proof of funds easily accessible and let’s go hunting for a property in Central Oregon.

Bouncing Along the Bottom in Bend, Oregon... Real Estate Market Trends for October

Before you get into the holiday season you may want to check out the latest market trend reports. This is a great time to pick up property in Central Oregon.


Our local data belays what we often hear in the daily news, from the data in the reports it appears that we have stabilized for the moment. The amount of homes actively listed on the market hit a high in August and September and now is slipping back down as we head toward winter. Distressed homes have retreated as well during this period and now comprise 45% of the market with short sales being about 60% of the distressed category. As we slip back down in inventory for the winter months the overall trend has been fewer homes on the market. We are currently down sixty to one hundred actively listed homes from previous years.

Driving this stabilization trend is the continued strong interest from investors and first time home buyers in the under $250,000 class of properties. This has led to sellers receiving multiple offers on properties that represent good values and has them selling quickly. It has also been surprising to see so many cash buyers. With the tightened underwriting rules for financing properties many capable buyers are by passing today’s amazingly low interest rates and bringing cash to the table.

The investors we see coming into the market are looking at the super low vacancy rates for rental properties in the Bend area and calculating solid returns for the next few years. The other attraction is the remarkably low prices and good values on many properties. This has occurred as sellers have come back to reality of what their property is worth today and will be worth over the next few years.

The biggest hold up in the having the real estate market continue to grow is the lack of confidence that the local job market will improve and the national economy’s lingering stagnation. With the upcoming Presidential election the opportunity that our economic turmoil will turn around is slim. With housing being such a huge component of the national economy it would not be surprising to see continued new programs and new road blocks offered up by both parties to help sway voter confidence thus adding to the lack of confidence.

My take is that the market will stay the same undulating course over the next 18 months. Eventually Bend will see slight gains at first but as confidence returns so will Bends popularity. All of the things people from outside of Bend loved before are still here waiting for them and it is just a matter of time before those who hold the dream to move here act. When those who lust for Bend act on their dreams expect to see return to predictable positive gains in real estate.

Have a great Thanksgiving!!

Cheers,

Bill

Time to Fall Back... September Bend Market Trend Reports

September has now passed and the glory of fall colors is upon us. Central Oregon is ablaze with vibrant colors. The usual big storm that tends to shake and shed the trees of their foliage has passed us by leaving us with a spectacular fall. Cool clear nights warm and sunny days bless all those who venture outdoors this time of the year.

In many ways the local real estate market reflects the same, the bluster of activity expect from lenders renewing their pursuit of foreclosures has yet to materialize. Interest rates have remained low and stable with little blips upward, only to settle back down. Inventories of good homes at reasonable prices remains thin as the amount of properties listed dropped slightly from August. Right now with the low inventory on good homes it is not uncommon to have multiple offers on a property soon after it appears on the market.

September numbers across the board dropped from this year’s highs that were achieved in August. Distressed property sales in relation to total properties sold has remained in the forty percent range for the fourth month in a row. This is a welcome relieve from last year when they comprised sixty plus percent of all sales. Recently we have seen more foreclosure activity at the court house steps, these properties should appear back on the market toward the end of November.

This will be good news for investors and first time home buyers looking for good value properties. For others the uncertainty with the jobs market combined with concern for the stock market and its affect on retirement income have many buyers and sellers frozen. It could take getting past the upcoming election cycle before we see a return to confidence in the overall market.

Check out the Duke Warner Realty Market Trend Report, the Bratton Report, the Bratton Notice of Default Report and a new report put out by the Bratton Appraisal Group, the Distressed Sales Analysis Report at shopbendhomes.com.

It has been a summer of neglect for my blog page. I was shocked to see that my last entry was back in June of this year. I thought I had done a better job of keeping folks updates on the real estate trending for Bend.

To bring you all up to speed the quickest way to access this information is on my web site shopbendhomes.com. For today I am including the information for the Duke Warner Realty Bend Real Estate Trends, The Bratton Report and the Bratton Notice of Default Report.

What we have seen for this past summer is a market that has leveled out price wise and inventories of homes has shrunk. Finding a good well priced home under $300,000 has been a real chore for most folks. When reviewing the market trends you can see how active the lower end of the market has been while the upper reaches of the market remain sluggish. This is a trend I would expect to see through out the winter and baring a miraculous turn around in the economy this will continue well into next year. Possibly some political maneuvering for the Presidential election may bring some temporary muscle to the economy.

What we see and hear most is that Bend is not dead, the title wave of shadow inventory in foreclosed properties is not coming. There is no dobut that there will be some large swells to navigate through but there are many folks waiting for the right moment to make their move here. All of the events, activities, weather and prefered lifestyle that drew many folks to Bend over the last decade remain. The long term prognosis for Bend is good, interest rates are low and opportunities are slipping away.

Give me a call if you need some one to be your bird dog for properties. I am constantly searching for properties for my clients and would welcome the opportunity to work for you.    

   

May Market Trends Report

Once again I am tardy with the last month’s market trend reports from both Duke Warner Realty and the Bratton Report. Please accept my humble apologies.

Summer has brought a predictable uptick in the inventory around town for properties in the middle price range of the market. Finding good homes under $125,000 remains a challenge as most good ones are snapped up within days of being listed on the market.

Lenders are now feeling more confident about their abilities to foreclose on properties without legal consequences. With this new found confidence we saw a spike in re-filings of Notices of Default in April and May. It will most likely be late September before we see those homes hit the market as bank owned properties. Some of those homeowners have chosen not to wait and have entered their properties into the market as short sales. Right now short sales are providing some of the best opportunities in the Bend market for those who are patient.

If a friend or you need to buy or sell, short sale or traditional sale, rural or urban property or just need some information give me a call. I am ready and waiting to assist you in achieving your goals.

November Market Trend Reports for Bend, Oregon now available....

Just in time for the holiday's the numbers for last month are now available at shopbendhome.com .


The under $225,000 remains the hottest portion of our market with investors and first time home buyers leading the way. Those who have hesitated in putting their offers on these homes are finding themselves on the outside looking in and are learning to bring strong offers to the table quickly. For the month the under $225,000 range there were 81 homes in a pending sales status and 69 homes sold. This makes the third month in a row the inventory for homes in this range has held to under a three month supply.

The rest of the market has slowed with a little more strength showing up in the $325,000 to $425,000 range with rise in the number of pending status for sales while actual sales have dropped off slightly.

In the overall market the list price to sales price ratio has flattened out to a 2% difference, showing that sellers and buyers are getting closer in their expectations for what a property should sell.

For winter buyers there are great values being brought to the table by sellers who are in the $325,000 and up price range. Their homes have been on the market a bit longer and they tend to have had the most room to give a little in their pricing expectations and have adjusted accordingly. With interest rates continuing their slow climb upwards this winter could present some of the best opportunities for those looking to move up in the level of home they could purchase.

Enjoy dissecting the numbers and have a fabulous holiday season!!!

Stepping Up To A New Web Site...

I have been feeling kind of bad for negecting my blogging duties of late but I have been working on the content in my new web site, shopbendhomes.com. A consuming task, which will be a work in progress for some time to come.  

My web site allows you find the latest properties available in Central Oregon with its powerful map based search engine. This search feature allows you to visit the properties location virtually. While viewing the property you will have all the listing information for the property presented at the same time. The web site allows you to set up your own account to keep track of all the properties you like and to be alerted to any changes in the properties status.  

My web site also contains pages and links to help guide you through the maze of real estate solutions. Take the time to visit my site I will be curious to hear your feedback and suggestions. 

Visit shopbendhomes.com to find your next Central Oregon property!

Bend Oregon July Market Trends

Here is the market trend report for July, I am a little tardy in posting this.

As one might expect the months of inventory on homes under $425,000 has increased as summer has attracted more sellers to the market. The inventory for homes in the price categories above $425,000 have actually dropped slightly.

The current list price to sales price ratio has remained in the high ninety percent range. The difference between original list price to sales price continues to shrink and is now at eighty eight percent. This is an indicator of how the smoking deals are disappearing from our market and that sellers have adjusted their pricing expectations.     

Our market continues to see investors that have been bolstered by Bloomberg's Businessweek report that Bend is number two on a list of the fastest recovering markets by 2014. Zillow's report that Bend is leading the nation in home value depreciation has many thinking that Bend is still ripe with opportunity. As the original list price to sale price ratio shows those bargins are starting to disappear.

The Roller Coaster called Bend, Oregon…

What a roller coaster ride, one day Bend, Oregon is predicted by Bloomberg Businessweek will be one of the fastest recovering markets by 2014 then Zillow reports that Bend is leading the nation in home value depreciation.


While the news of our market is mixed these days there are positive trends to report from Bend. Using data from the Central Oregon Association of Realtors MLS through Trendvision, the inventory of homes on the market has shrunk by 47% when compared to July of 2008 and 33% from last July. Currently there are 1587 properties on the market in Bend, down from 2363 last July. Looking back the last six months has produced the lowest inventory levels since 2004.

Sellers appear to be facing the reality of the current market conditions and are pricing their homes closer to today’s values. The differential from original list price versus sold price has increased 5.3% from last year at this time.

With sellers pricing their properties more realistically the days on market has dropped to the lowest in two years. The average time a home is on the market has decreased to 135 days versus 150 days last year.

So what’s it all mean, have we hit bottom? No one knows for sure, are we close? It sure has all of the appearances of being close to the bottom. What could we use as a gauge? How about using properties under $300,000, the ones that are good homes and are well priced have been getting snapped up quickly. Above $300,000 and on into the upper reaches of our market remain soft but there too if the property is well priced it disappears rapidly.

Another signal is the return of buyers from outside the area, buyers who see value in the properties here and wish to buy before the best values are gone. With the list price to sales price ratio shrinking the days of finding the killer deal is fading. One more positive signal is the success by a select few builders who have returned to the market to fill the niche for buyers who wish to have a new home.

In spite of our fall from grace Bend remains and will continue to be a great place to live! While our real estate market may bounce along the bottom for a bit of time our dry climate, the large variety of outdoor activities, enjoying that we are one of the great beer cities of the west and the access to flights from the Roberts Field that allows for quick access to all points beyond Bend are among what makes Bend a desirable place to live. Bend is a great place to live just as it has been since long before its recent popularity.

They just keep dropping...

In case you have not heard Freddie Mac reports that long-term mortgage rates have moved down again.


This week interest on 30-year fixed loans hit a new low of 4.49 percent, compared to 4.54 percent last week and 5.22 percent a year ago. For those of you in position to take out a 15-year mortgage, they have hit a huge low dropping to 3.95 percent, down from 4 percent last week and 4.63 percent a year ago. Five-year adjustable-rate mortgages also reached a historic new low of 3.63 percent, down from 3.76 percent last week and 4.73 percent a year ago.

For those who have been on the fence about purchasing a home or refinancing these rates should prove enticing. It is unlikely that interest rates will soar anytime soon but why take chances. You would hate to be the one who says man I should have moved quicker on those rates.

These historic rates and the dramatic home bargains available allows one to buy much more home for the dollar than any time in the last ten years.

Buying rental property makes sense…

With vacancy rates for Bend rental homes hovering around 3.5% and home prices at ten year lows and interest rates at historic lows, the time is right for investors to pick inexpensive properties. The low vacancy rates are not likely to change anytime soon, many people have given up the fight to keep their mortgaged homes and have been forced out into the rental market to fulfill their housing needs. Those who have lost the battle to keep their home now face having their credit severely damaged for at least two years possibly longer, making purchasing a home all but impossible for the next few years. This scenario should keep the rental market strong for many years to come.

For those folks with the means and capital reserves now may be the time to take advantage of today’s market conditions. Currently there are 25 homes listed in the Bend market under $140,000 that are not short sales, nine of these homes were built in the year 2000 or after. Many renters are looking for modern comfortable homes that are easy to live in and do not require a large commitment for upkeep.

A good example is a three bedroom home with one and a half bathrooms built in 2007 currently listed at $132,900. With a 25% down payment and an investor’s mortgage interest rate of around 5.5% rate, an investor would be paying approximately $770 a month for principal, interest, taxes and insurance. A quick survey of Craigslist would show that a home of this caliber should fetch a monthly rental of approximately $950-$1250. This would put you on the path to having a positive cash flow.

Positive cash flow is just one benefit of a rental property, not to be over looked are the tax benefits of owning a rental property. Check with your accountant for how a rental property could best work for easing your tax burden. Currently the near term outlook for appreciation on a rental property is unlikely the long term prospects for Bend are good. Those who took advantage of the real estate downturn in the eighties to buy rental properties are still chuckling today.

Those who are skeptical of the Bend market should remember that all of the qualities that made Bend popular a few years ago are still here, it just that a few of our warts are now more apparent. People will still want to move to Bend because of its proximity to outdoor recreation, dry climate, great beer and easy life style. Bend will never be an employment Mecca but for those who are determined there is always a way to make the lifestyle work. Maybe owning rental properties will be part of your portfolio for successful Bend living.

COBA Tour of Homes and the Sagebrush Classic…

This weekend kicks off the Central Oregon Builders Associations Tour of Homes. The Duke Warner Realty staff will be hosting a Greg Welch designed and built home in Northwest Crossing. Set amidst ponderosa pines and rugged lava outcroppings on the west side of Bend, Oregon; Northwest Crossing is one of Bend’s premier neighborhoods. Come by 2330 NW High Lakes Loop and visit me while I host this beautiful and efficient home Saturday 12:30 p.m. through 3:30 p.m. and once again on Sunday 3:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Check out Greg’s attention to details in the quality and comfort of this energy efficient home set in a neighborhood that has it all, parks, schools, gourmet grocery, shops & restaurants! This home has an open floor plan with a master suite on the main, gourmet kitchen with tiled center island, plus den/office & loft. To assist you in making the most of your leisure time the yard is fully landscaped with automated irrigation system.

After visiting our open house there are 36 more homes on the COBA Tour of Homes to consider this year. The event is spread out over two weekend’s so do not feel rushed to visit every home this weekend. Take your time to view all the eye candy for those who love well crafted homes.

I am a little late with this one but tickets are still available so while you are in town, make plans to attend the Sagebrush Classic Feast at the Broken Top Golf Club. This event has become one Bend’s best parties with food prepared by world class chef’s who have flown into make this an experience not to be missed. All proceeds from the event will benefit the many family assistance programs around town.

Bend, Oregon Residential Real Estate Trends for June 2010

Here is my take on the Bend, Oregon real estate market at early summer. Currently there is more interest from buyers from out of the area than folks that live here. People who live here are still nervous about the lack of jobs and the uncertainty of what the future will bring, many are waiting for more pain to come. Buyers from out of the area see this market as a great opportunity and generally come from areas with a rosier outlook on the economy. They are buying properties as rentals, retirement homes or second homes. The better properties that are priced well are moving quickly to these people.

Overall the market is stronger than a year ago but is by no means healthy. The properties that are being purchased are usually very good deals but not necessarily distressed. Inventories of homes is down to an 8.8 month supply, one year ago we had 14.4 month supply. We have been in the 8 month range since March of this year. The stats break out that 21.21% of the homes sold the last three months are short sales, 34.38% are REO's and the remaining 44.41% are traditional sales. The traditional sales are closing at a rate of 95.93% list price to sales price, short sales are at 98.13% and REO's are at 96.47%. Here is a scary number that most folks do not consider, the original list price versus the sales price, the number has improved from last year's 79% and is now at 85%. We have been in the mid 80% range since December of last year; I would expect that number to improve as people lower their expectations for what their home is worth.

To sum it up the lower end of the market $225,000 and under, there will not be much more downward movement. The $225,000 through $425,000 has all sorts of properties and pricing strategies. While most properties are priced reasonably there will be some more movement downward. Most brokers realize the value in having correct pricing but sellers can be quite headstrong on the original pricing wanting to give the higher price a shot before succumbing to reality. The $425,000 and up market has the most room for more downward pressure.

Charted below are the trend numbers for the past three months. To view in a full screen click on the box in the lower right.