Santa Likes These Numbers for Bend, Oregon (Duke Warner Market Trends Report)

Here’s to a happy and joyful holiday season for everyone. A warm holiday season it has been so far here in Bend, Oregon. This has not stopped Bendites from enjoying a great start to our ski season. Living in Bend has such great advantages to the daily grind, it is so nice to enjoy the snow in the morning then follow it up with an afternoon bike ride or escape the grind by heading out to the slopes for a quick hour or two.

Linked here is an early Christmas gift this month’s Duke Warner Market Trends Report.

In this month’s report we actually have seen an increase in active listings, while new listings coming to the market have declined. While most active listing categories are down but relatively equal to last month, listings in the $225,000-$325,000 range have jumped. This category saw an increase of 34 more homes actively listed. Many of these homes have come into the market to take advantage of the favorable reporting the last few weeks. The number of listings in the pending sale category also has dropped dramatically by 68 transactions. The homes that sold in Bend also dropped but this appears to be in line with the season.

Watching our daily sales trends makes me think that December will continue to be solid. One category in a pinch is with those trying to complete their short sales before year’s end. The “Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation” for distressed homeowners expires then which could leave many successful short sale clients with enormous tax liability. While there has been intense lobbying to extend tax relief, it is being drown out by the fiscal cliff bickering. The effect this bickering has on the rest of the market remains to be seen. This bickering has cast a constant pall on the joyful holiday season and has effectively been the Grinch that is stealing Christmas and beyond. Soon Santa will come and go, as will this crisis too.

I have refused to give in to the Grinch’s his year and have asked Santa to send more referrals. I am pretty sure that Santa will not mind a little help from those of you out there that know someone in need of a hard working broker. Help keep the coal out of my stocking, I am easy to reach.

Have a great Holiday Season and spread a little joy to those known and unknown to you!!

 

Summer is here and so are the June Bratton and Duke Warner Market Trend Reports…

The Bend market trend numbers have remained steady as we go over the past few months. With summer we have seen a slight increase in the number of active listings with the number of sold properties remaining consistent with the previous three months. The number of sold properties has remained fairly level over this period.

What to expect this summer?? One is that the Northwest weather rarely follows the rest of the nation; while the rest of the country swelters we have had a relatively cool summer thus far with only one week of hot weather. What is sweltering in our neck of the woods is the real estate market under $300,000. We continue to see multiple offers for good homes that are reasonably priced. Many of these homes will be tied up within a matter of days of coming onto the market. The continued pressure on the available inventory is leading to slight price increases if not when the property is listed then when a property has multiple offers.

We are also seeing a continued decrease in the number of Bank owned homes that are available. Currently in Bend (not including the outlying areas) there are 18 active listings available and 44 pending sale listings. I think we all know of several properties that are sitting out there vacant with signs in the windows and no owner insight… the dreaded shadow inventory!! So far the banks have shown inclination to move quickly to resolve issues with these properties and bring them to market. I would like to say that this all part of the plan to keep the market stable but my experience with banks/lenders would make me think otherwise. The lenders do not care they move to their own rules at their own pace. Unless they show a willingness to throw more money and manpower at the shadow homes my thoughts are that they will continue to dribble out for the immediate future.

Conversely the availability of properties being short sold remains constant with 50 homes in an active listing status, 58 are in a contingent sale status with back up offers being accepted and 79 in a pending sale status.

It will be interesting to see how Bill 1552, passed last fall by the Oregon house and senate, has an effect on the market. Designed to provide help distressed homeowners in communicating with their lender to arrive at a solution for their dilemma. The key feature of this bill is to bring lenders and homeowners together to mediate a reasonable solution for both parties.

The optimism that we have reached the bottom combined with the low inventory of desirable homes has brought an increase in the number of building permits issued for new homes. While NorthWest Crossing has been at the center of this activity for sometime we are starting to see signs of live in other sectors of town. Group PacWest has revived the eastern portion of the former Palmer Homes Gardenside neighborhood off of SE 27th Street with great vigor. Elsewhere throughout town you will see other signs of building life, nothing like we saw in the mid 2000’s, which is a good thing.

Summer is a great time to explore Central Oregon, get out there and have some fun before it is gone!! If you need a guide for Central Oregon properties do ot hesitate to contact me, I love to show what we have avaiable.

Next up is what some believe to be Central Oregon’s best season fall.

Spring is in the air...Duke Warner Market Trends Report for April and more...

Wow, this is what spring looks like in Central Oregon… the Rhododendrons are beginning to bloom, the trees and grass are green once again and the sun being out is a regular event, it is has been warm and wonderful outside. This may be the spring season we have been waiting for, one that sees warm days and sunshine instead of the endless winter of last two years. So far the spring skiing/biking/yard work has been fantastic with sun filled weekends for the last month and a half.

With the start of spring we have seen only a slight increase in available homes. According to our Duke Warner Market Trends Report at the end of April we had 405 homes on under one acre that were actively marketed in Bend. As of this writing we have jump slightly to 457 homes. On this beautiful Monday morning it is past noon and we have yet to see one new listing hit the Bend market for the day.

If you are a property owner that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the doom and gloom to end possibly this is your time to spring forward. Interest rates remain low at today’s rate of 3.85%. This is not likely to change this summer for a variety of reasons. Of course with the low inventory there is less competition from other properties. This too is unlikely to change over the summer as lenders have been slow to process distressed properties. Oregon’s SB1552 a bill designed to end dual tracking by the larger lenders and require the lenders to mediate with their borrowers is likely to slow the processing of distressed properties even further.

On the flip side there are still opportunities out there for buyers. While bank owned properties have decreased for the time being, the leading value category is in homes being short sold. It is true that short sales can be a pain and have a reputation for taking months to complete. For the buyer who can wait out the process they represent a segment of the market that has the greatest value. Today there are 49 short sale and 27 bank owned homes that are actively marketed in Bend. These numbers have decreased dramatically from years past adding to the decrease in our inventory.

Time will tell if the lenders ever get a handle on how to process the large number of homes that have been foreclosed (or are in the process of foreclosing). For now there are plenty of properties that are sitting out there waiting for someone to finish processing them so they can return to the market. Until then if you are going to buy it would be best to have a great lender on your side, come well armed with an approval letter from them and know your limits. If you like a property weigh the pros and cons carefully, if it is a sound and well priced property consider making your offer at the asking price or risk missing out to those who will. This seems strange considering how there are still so many property owners who cannot sell their homes but many of those are in their position due to price or location.

If you or someone you know needs assistance with properties in Bend and Central Oregon, give me a call or send me an email. I am glad to assist and referrals are always appreciated.

The March Bratton Report for Bend, Oregon…

The March 2012 Bratton Report for the Bend real estate market was released over the weekend. The report confirms much of what was covered in my previous blog detailing the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends Report.


Both reports show a good size jump in the number of properties sold last month, a trend that appears to be continuing into this April. The hot classes are properties priced between $100,000 and $150,000, closely followed by the $150,000 to $200,000 range. With such strong movement in the lower price range look for these trends trickle upward and help the mid range priced homes sell this summer.

Fueling much of the buying is the tight rental market for Bend homes, currently running at 4.2% according to annual rental report release recently by the Central Oregon Rental Association. This is leading to investors returning to the market to snap up good homes that are well priced. Many of these homes are distressed properties either being bank owned or homeowners short selling their properties.

Predictably this competition is drying up the inventory of available homes. As of this writing there are 32 bank owned and 62 short sale homes actively listed. It is expected that the short sale listings will increase as we march closer to the July 1st implementation of Oregon House Bill 1552.

In case you have not followed Oregon HB 1552 it is intended to end the dual tracking policies of the larger lenders. With a three month implementation window from the bills inception there is much that is not known on how this bill will affect homeowners in distress. The bill calls for homeowners and lenders to participate in mediation to arrive at a solution that will allow the homeowner relief through loan modification, short sale, deed-in-lieu and lastly foreclosure.

This bill primarily directed at Oregon’s non-judicial foreclosures. Oregon allows lenders to pursue foreclosure through non-judicial and judicial proceedings. Lenders traditionally have taken the non-judicial procedure because of its simplicity and relatively quick timeline. With the new requirements placed on lenders there is a strong possibility that lenders may now pursue foreclosure through the judicial process. This will allow lenders to retain their rights to pursue any deficiency tied to the debt beyond the foreclosure. Another benefit to the lender in the judicial foreclosure is the short notification timelines, the question will be if the procedure timelines and avoiding the mediation process will be enough to offset the 180 day “Right of Redemption” period required in all judicial foreclosures.

Either way this breaks expect to see an influx of “Notices of Default” filed before the July 1st date, this in turn should create a wave of short sale listings and a bump to our inventory. The question how big will the wave be? And how far will it travel?

Real Estate Trends Report for October is Ready!!

Many are finding that in Bend it is getting harder to find the house they want at a price they can accept. October has brought the lowest inventory of Bend homes for this year. With the lower inventory we are seeing houses that are well priced with nice amenities and a desirable location being snapped up off the market quickly. We have found that buyers who think that Bend has abundance of great homes at super cheap prices are astounded by how difficult it is to find the home that they want at a price they are willing to pay.


Many of the well priced homes are seeing multiple offers, which is a welcome change for sellers. That trend is especially pronounced in the lower price range of the market with only a 2.8 month supply of homes available under $225,000 and a 3.2 month supply of priced between $225,000 and $325,000. In categories below $625,000 there is currently less than an eight month supply of homes.

The average price for a home sold in Bend for the month was $259,474 down 12% from 2009. Of those homes sold this past month traditional sales made up the bulk of the sales at 44.7%. Bank owned homes fell in behind the traditional sales at 32.1% and short sales brought up the rear 23%.

Short sales remain a headache for all involved in the process. To illustrate how frustrating the short sale process can be there are 133 in a contingent sales status compared to 6 traditional home sales and 1 bank owned. In the contingent sales status most are waiting for approval of the third party lender/investor which can take months. Recently I have been told by certain lenders that they are attempting to complete the short sales transaction in a thirty day window, I have yet to see a lender accomplish that timeline.

The bank owned properties have been the primary recipients of multiple offers with their aggressive pricing; these homes have sold 99.1% of the list price at the time of the sale. Short sales have had the next best results with a ratio of 97.8% and traditional sales seeing the larger concession in prices at 95.1%.

For a different perspective on pricing, homes continue to sell in the mid 80% range of their original list price, this trend has held true since December of 2009. What I see in this last number is that sellers are still adjusting to the realization that their properties will not fetch the price of even just a year ago.

These trends will likely continue through the winter months and into the first part of the spring season. It appears that for the lower range of the market we have stumbled to the bottom of the market. I think we will remain there for the near future and into the next year while we wait for the rest of the market to catch up and the economy continue its recovery.

Click the following link to see this month’s market trends report.

Could this be a step in the right direction….

Bank of America announced a new program that will forgive up to 30% of the principal for those owing more than 120% of the value of their home. The program is slated to start this May is in response to a settlement reached with the commonwealth of Massachusetts regarding the type of loan modifications Bank of America could make on their Countrywide portfolio. And it may be a preemptive move to the Washington State suit that Bank of America is not doing enough to modify underwater loans.


While principal reduction has been practiced sparingly on a case to case basis by other large lenders, the Bank of America program will be more wide spread, yet focused to one group of its client base. Applying to only borrowers who have loans generated by Countrywide Financial will be eligible. Of those borrowers only the riskiest loans will be considered. You know the breed; option adjustable-rate, subprime and prime loans with a low initial fixed rate then annual increases. Bank representatives say there are approximately 45,000 loans in the portfolio that qualify. The average reduction will be in the $62,000 range.

Other qualifications are similar to those for a standard loan modification, you also must have missed at least two consecutive payments and be able to demonstrate that you are in financial hardship. Ones loan must have a balance of 120% of the estimated home value.

Once you qualify the program will reduce the principal balance and place the determined amount in an interest free account. For every five year period that you make your payments the bank will forgive a little more of the principal balance until the balance has reached the 100% loan to value ratio. To protect Bank of Americas interests should the homes price recover in the fourth or fifth year to the loan balance the forgiveness to the interest free account would stop and would have to be paid off when the home is sold or the home is refinanced.

Now before you run out and call your Bank of America representative you should know that it will be Bank of America that will reach out to you should you qualify for this program. While this is not ideal it could be a step in the right direction in providing relief that makes sense.

I’ve fallen, can you help me find my way!

Are you like many of my clients where the last few years have not been kind to your finances? Do you owe more on your home than what it would sell for in today’s market? Have you been exploring your options; loan modification, deed-in-lieu, short sale, foreclosure or gutting it out and wait for the market value to return? With such a dizzying array of choices, all with serious repercussions, where should you start?

Seeking the wisdom of professionals well versed in today’s ever changing real estate landscape is your best chance to make the best of an unfortunate situation. Real estate agents/brokers are on frontline in this battle and can help provide direction and insight to current market conditions but few are licensed to practice law or give financial advice. The advice of a real estate attorney and a certified public accountant is essential to mapping out a strategy that could affect your finances for the next twenty years.

While most folks who find themselves in this ever evolving nightmare cannot begin to afford a $275 an hour attorney or accountant, there is alternative help available. Here are a few contacts to start with; Legal Aid Services of Oregon, LASO, 541-385-6944 for the Bend office or visit their web site at http://www.lasoregon.org/. Another option is Free Legal Aid at http://www.usattorneylegalservices.com/; this website will refer you to LASO, but also has a lot of good resources that will help depending on what path you take. The Free Legal Aid site has good examples of a sample hardship letter, debt settlement letter and more. Last but not least there is Neighbor Impact their mission is to help the economically disadvantaged in our area. Neighbor Impact offers mortgage default counseling amongst several other financial counseling programs. They can be reached at 541-548-2380 or visit their website at http://www.neighborimpact.org/.

No matter the path you chose, start your journey by collecting and organizing your financial information. Being prepared to provide the most intimate details of your finances will lessen the stress involved in discussing and planning your exit strategy.

You will need to collect a list of your income, assets and liabilities. Two months is the standard for providing pay stubs, bank, mortgage and other monthly statements. Have complete tax returns for the last two years at the ready. In your packet include all correspondence from your lender(s) pertaining to foreclosure of your property; if you have received a Notice of Default include it too. Rounding out your information packet, draft a letter that describes why you are in financial hardship. To say that your house is no longer of the value it once was will not suffice as a reason for your hardship, though it may be a large contributor to your situation.

Mentally prepare yourself for journey of twist and turns that will take months and possibly years to complete. Be strong as all things do pass and life will get better.

First Time Homeowner Rebate Coundown

Just sixty days left before the $8000 first time homeowners tax rebate expires this November 30th. Are you in position to take advantage of this program? If not it is time to move fast before this fabulous program gone.

The program is designed to bring first time home buyers or those who have not owned a home for three years or more into the market. This program combined with ultra low interest rates and home price that are in full retreat, a new home buyer has never had it better.

"Time is of the Essence" is a common phrase in real estate but never more relevant than now with home sales transactions taking anywhere from thirty to ninety days to close. Since the banking collapse many new laws have inacted to protect consumers. These laws have added more layers to the process of buying and closing a home. Ironically these laws meant to protect may now cost many the opportunity to buy a home.

First time buyers need to have there ducks in a row. First off having pre-approval from your lender is essential. Do the research in selecting a mortgage professional, make sure that they have a history of moving quickly to get all the paperwork processed in a timely fashion.

With pre-approval in hand, time will be short to find the right property, one that meets your physical and financial needs. There are a wide variety of buying situations that may provide the timing and value you need to close quickly.

Bank owned properties offer a tremendous value, they have their quirks but generally have fewer strings attached leading to a quicker closing.

With the short timeline most short sales are out of the picture. Short sales require the seller to get the approval of their lender(s). This is a time comsuming process sometimes taking over 120 days. Once the sale has approval you will need to tack on the lenders time needed to close out the sale. Occasionally there will be short sales available that have already been approved by the lender(s) for a previous buyer who's deal fell through. These properties can provide an opportunity to buy low with out having the unbearable wait.

Probably the least cumbersome is the conventional home sale. No need to deal with the sellers lenders here.

If you are looking to purchase in the Bend market, let me be your guide.


Bill Panton
Broker, Duke Warner Realty
1033 NW Newport Ave.
Bend, Oregon 97701
bpanton@dukewarner.com
cell 541-420-6545
office 541-382-8262
fax 541-385-3272

Weathers Changing and so is the Market!!

Fall has quickly come upon us this week in Bend with dramatically cooler weather and trees that are beginning to change their colors. Just two days ago we were water skiing at Crescent Lake in swim shorts and ski vests. Today it's mountain biking with fleece tops and leggings. Yesterday brought some of the first snows of the season to the higher elevations surrounding Bend tantalizing all those who pray to the snow Gods for an early ski season.

As fall is changing our recreational opportunities the housing market is also changing. Last month our office posted the busiest month since 2007. At the heart of the activity is the influx of first time home buyers and investors swooping up some exceptional values in today's market. Many of the better priced properties are receiving multiple offers within days of being listed on the MLS.

With the first time home buyers rebate slated to expire on November 30th there is a rush to find the perfect property for those clients. It will be a tight fit for them to be guided through the process of finding the home they desire, obtaining financing, home inspections, appraisals and closing on the property before the deadline. Those who select the wrong property, wait to long or think that the rebate program will be extended most likely will find themselves left out of the party.

For investors it's finding affordable properties that will bring a good return over the years. The current market has some exceptional properties at prices that pencil out to provide great rental income. Currently bank owned properties offer some of the best values with excellent closing times. Properties in a short sale situation often appear to be great values but often come with lots of frustration in long lead times and poor communication from the third party lenders.

Adding to the mix are the return of normal home sellers who desire to sell their home with out all the drama of the distressed property sale. Many believing that we are near or at the bottom of the real estate markets free fall. While most do not see their home value returning to the illusionary numbers of 2005/06, they feel now is as good a time as any coming up in the near future to sell their home. Upon selling many are taking advantage to buy up taking advantage of the markets tumble.

If you are on the fence about getting into today's market keep in mind that the interest rates of today will not last much longer. Most all of the mortgage professionals that we work with are telling us that by the end of October we will see interest rates begin to rise and will continue to do so well into the new year if not longer.

Fall has so many great opportunities, get out there enjoy all that you can.


Bill Panton
Broker, Duke Warner Realty
1033 NW Newport Ave.
Bend, Oregon 97701
bpanton@dukewarner.com
cell 541-420-6545
office 541-382-8262
fax 541-385-3272