October 2012 Market Report for the Broken Top Neighborhood in Bend, Oregon

I am going to attempt to bring you a monthly activity report that should keep you up to speed with how real estate is doing in your favorite Bend, Oregon neighborhoods. At this point this is just an experiment with Broken Top as my first guinea pig.

October marks the first full month of fall, we had a pretty moderate weather pattern for the month which helped keep buyer interest high in most areas of Bend. The foliage colors this year were also a blessing adding some spectacular color to the landscape.

Now that the election cycle has passed and we will soon have a bit more clarity of where we are heading for the next few years, we should start to see more people decide to move on with their lives. Moving up, moving on, downsizing you name it the demand to make these moves has been pent up and I think folks are ready to get on with life.

Neighborhoods of the stature of Broken Top are beginning to move along but in a slower fashion than neighborhoods that have homes of lesser value. Buyers and sellers in this price point have been reluctant to join the recovery party. Sales have tailed off in October when compared to September. In September the Broken Top community had six homes sold compared to October’s single home. The neighborhood will carry a decent inventory of homes in to our winter sales period at fourteen. Generally once we get into the winter holiday period, starting with Thanksgiving and ending after New Years, fewer folks will want the inconvenience of having their homes listed. For staging purposes the holidays are a great time of the year to have your home available for touring since many homes are dressed up for the holidays. It may be the one time of the year you can get away with a slightly cluttered home.

If you have questions about the Bend real estate market and need a source for information, please contact me, I am glad to assist you in making informed decisions about Bend.

                                             List Price                                   Average

             Listings     low         high         average      median     price/sqft     DOM

Active         17   $349,000 $1,950,000   $935,632     $945,000      $233      206

New             3   $475,000    $549,000    $512,450    $512,450      $186        23

Contingent    2   $639,000    $799,900    $719,450    $719,450      $168      325

Pending        4   $329,000    $990,000    $525,750    $392,000      $186        99

Sold             1   $358,000    $358,000    $358,000    $358,000      $190       135

The Bratton Report for September 2012 is ready for you…

This month’s Bratton Report is similar in content to the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends Report. The combined information from both reports shows a picture of a real estate market were some key indicators are down for the month after two months of steady growth. The slowdown is about a month early when compared to previous years.

In this Bratton Report we find that the median price of homes in the Bend, Oregon market has fallen, the days on the market have increased and the number of sales for the month has fallen. The September numbers are more typical of what we traditionally see in October.

After rising the past two months the median price of a home here in Bend has shrunk back to $220,000. This is a level seen many times over the past few years, though at that those times it had been the high mark for those respective periods. Fall of the last four years has led the way for a decline in the median that last until the first of the year. This annual hibernation has averaged a decline of 20%. Should the pattern hold, we should see a median sale price around $175,000 by December.

Once the distraction of the holidays and election season have passed expect the pricing along with the other market indicators slowly build until the spring months when the market should accelerate building to the summer highs. This is a trend that has held true all but a very few years regardless of the economic or political climate. The exception being the red hot winter market of 2005 which heralded market conditions that hopefully will not be seen anytime soon.

My expectations are that when the market returns for its annual upturn after the first of the year we will see continued strength in our market. Bend, Oregon is and always will be a place where folks want to live and play. This desirability will keep us on a trajectory of having a sustainable even growth real estate market.

For more information on today’s market conditions or to list/sell your property fell free to contact me.

The March Bratton Report for Bend, Oregon…

The March 2012 Bratton Report for the Bend real estate market was released over the weekend. The report confirms much of what was covered in my previous blog detailing the Duke Warner Realty Market Trends Report.


Both reports show a good size jump in the number of properties sold last month, a trend that appears to be continuing into this April. The hot classes are properties priced between $100,000 and $150,000, closely followed by the $150,000 to $200,000 range. With such strong movement in the lower price range look for these trends trickle upward and help the mid range priced homes sell this summer.

Fueling much of the buying is the tight rental market for Bend homes, currently running at 4.2% according to annual rental report release recently by the Central Oregon Rental Association. This is leading to investors returning to the market to snap up good homes that are well priced. Many of these homes are distressed properties either being bank owned or homeowners short selling their properties.

Predictably this competition is drying up the inventory of available homes. As of this writing there are 32 bank owned and 62 short sale homes actively listed. It is expected that the short sale listings will increase as we march closer to the July 1st implementation of Oregon House Bill 1552.

In case you have not followed Oregon HB 1552 it is intended to end the dual tracking policies of the larger lenders. With a three month implementation window from the bills inception there is much that is not known on how this bill will affect homeowners in distress. The bill calls for homeowners and lenders to participate in mediation to arrive at a solution that will allow the homeowner relief through loan modification, short sale, deed-in-lieu and lastly foreclosure.

This bill primarily directed at Oregon’s non-judicial foreclosures. Oregon allows lenders to pursue foreclosure through non-judicial and judicial proceedings. Lenders traditionally have taken the non-judicial procedure because of its simplicity and relatively quick timeline. With the new requirements placed on lenders there is a strong possibility that lenders may now pursue foreclosure through the judicial process. This will allow lenders to retain their rights to pursue any deficiency tied to the debt beyond the foreclosure. Another benefit to the lender in the judicial foreclosure is the short notification timelines, the question will be if the procedure timelines and avoiding the mediation process will be enough to offset the 180 day “Right of Redemption” period required in all judicial foreclosures.

Either way this breaks expect to see an influx of “Notices of Default” filed before the July 1st date, this in turn should create a wave of short sale listings and a bump to our inventory. The question how big will the wave be? And how far will it travel?

Duke Warner Realty Market Trends for March are out!!

There are good signs that our real estate market is stabilizing and a recovery for the region has begun. If our two larger markets Bend and Redmond remain strong it should be a matter of time before our smaller markets like Prineville and south Deschutes County follow suit.


The market for homes under $225,000 is getting more and more competitive, not just in Bend but Redmond too. Redmond is selling homes under $125,000 as fast as they come onto the market. If you are going to buy in this class you better be prepared to act quickly as most well priced homes are receiving multiple offers. If you do not have a mortgage person guiding you on this process use this link to a list of mortgage brokers that have done well for our clients in the past.

For the second month in a row the number of homes that have taken a price reduction has fallen. This trend holds sway mostly in our hot categories with homes under $325,000. The categories above $325,000 are holding relatively steady in terms of price and quantities of homes available with a slight improvement in the number of homes sold.

Overall our inventory has slipped below 400 homes actively listed for sale. At any one time there is an average of 40 bank owned properties and 60 short sales that are actively listed for sale, both of these numbers have been on a downward trend but appear to have stabilized. It will be interesting to see how the recently passed Oregon House Bill 1552 which goes into effect in late June and was design to provide relief and clarity for distressed homeowners affects our distressed sales market. There are a variety of opinions on how the lenders are going to react but there is nothing decisive to report yet.

Builders too are feeling confident in the direction of our local market, last month was had the second highest number of new home permits being issued in the past twelve months. To see the most dramatic illustration of these new homes head out to NorthWest Crossing were more than a dozen new homes are under construction.

Click on the city of your preference to see this month’s Duke Warner Market Trend Report. The Bratton report will follow once it is released.

Bend       Redmond

Now Serving Duke Warner Realty's February Bend Market Trends Report

Duke Warner Real Estate Trend Report is now available on my web site http://www.shopbendhomes.com/ .  I should have the Bratton Report available in just a few days, once it is released.

February’s report shows that we are continuing to see a decline of available listed home. The decline this month is slight with ten fewer homes actively marketed. We actually had more new listings this February than the previous month but with the market heating up were able to sell more homes.

The competition for good homes under $200,000 is getting pretty stiff, last weekend there was one newly listed home that received 31 offers on the first weekend. Others are not quite so dramatic but still are garnering plenty of attention from potential buyers. It will be interesting to see if this new found competition will lead to an influx of traditional sellers in the spring and summer selling months that are just around the corner.

Another trend to watch that could support the thought that we have reached the bottom of this downturn is if the amount of price reductions each month continues to decrease. This number has continued to fall as sellers are coming to market with a more realistic idea of what their properties are worth in today’s market. This in turn should help sellers get there properties sold in a quicker fashion.

We are still waiting for the much vaunted shadow inventory to hit the market. Many of my colleagues are in agreement that this may not happen in great quantity here in Bend. The recent court battles over robo- signing by the big lenders has been resolved for the most part and lenders have re-filed notices of default with the county but the amount of filings are nothing like we have seen in the past few years. What we will most likely see from these new filings is an increase in the number of homeowners that attempt a short sale and eventually a few more bank owned listings.

As of this writing the current number of homes actively listed as short sales is 46. On the bank owned side our inventory is down to 33 homes stick built homes. The number of homes in the bank owned category over the past couple of years had fluctuated between the high seventies and the low nineties. The blip from homes that are currently receiving their notices of default will hit the court house steps early this summer. As this passes we may see increase in the amount of bank owned homes going into the winter months.

The wild cards to the upcoming spring and summer selling season are the Presidential elections (with all their promises and rhetoric) this fall, the forecasted higher gas prices that should affect the overall economy and the stability of the European economy. With little control over any of these, I think those of us with the means will move forward with their lives and take advantage of the favorable real estate market conditions in Central Oregon property.

If a friend or you would like a personal assistant for your Central Oregon property endeavors I am available and look forward to hearing your goals.

Come and Get It….December Market Trend Reports for Bend, Oregon

The holiday season brought moderate success for retailers as people seem to be ready for some good news and are tired of the same old doom and gloom. For the housing market in Bend the news has remained the same for the past few months.


Going back to August of 2011 the sales numbers have been remarkably similar in all price categories with home under $325,000 leading the way for homes sold. With all the media coverage of a swollen distressed homes market our numbers representing the current inventory just do not support such coverage locally. The inventory numbers continue to sink with just over 500 homes offered in Bend, as recently as this past August that number exceeded 600.

By far the most active segment of the market remains homes priced $225,000 and under. This price range tends to help satisfy both the first time home buyer and the investor who is looking for affordable properties that will generate a positive return. With the occupancy rate for rental properties remaining low (around 4%), we will continue to see multiple offers on well priced homes under $325,000 as they tend to be the ones that pencil out the best for the investor who has the means to pick up these homes.

Currently 276 homes are listed over $325,000 and in this category there are some great values, they just take a little more time to discover but there is little competition for them.

As the world economic markets remain unstable look for that to affect our mortgage rates as investors look to the relatively safe Dollar and our bonds as a haven for their money. Their incoming funds may lead to a slow rise in mortgage interest rates. If rates raise look for more buyers to get off the fence and take advantage of the historic low rates currently offered. With the current low inventory of desirable homes expect the competition for those homes to increase.

To view the Market Trend Reports for Bend click here.

Stepping Up To A New Web Site...

I have been feeling kind of bad for negecting my blogging duties of late but I have been working on the content in my new web site, shopbendhomes.com. A consuming task, which will be a work in progress for some time to come.  

My web site allows you find the latest properties available in Central Oregon with its powerful map based search engine. This search feature allows you to visit the properties location virtually. While viewing the property you will have all the listing information for the property presented at the same time. The web site allows you to set up your own account to keep track of all the properties you like and to be alerted to any changes in the properties status.  

My web site also contains pages and links to help guide you through the maze of real estate solutions. Take the time to visit my site I will be curious to hear your feedback and suggestions. 

Visit shopbendhomes.com to find your next Central Oregon property!

Buying rental property makes sense…

With vacancy rates for Bend rental homes hovering around 3.5% and home prices at ten year lows and interest rates at historic lows, the time is right for investors to pick inexpensive properties. The low vacancy rates are not likely to change anytime soon, many people have given up the fight to keep their mortgaged homes and have been forced out into the rental market to fulfill their housing needs. Those who have lost the battle to keep their home now face having their credit severely damaged for at least two years possibly longer, making purchasing a home all but impossible for the next few years. This scenario should keep the rental market strong for many years to come.

For those folks with the means and capital reserves now may be the time to take advantage of today’s market conditions. Currently there are 25 homes listed in the Bend market under $140,000 that are not short sales, nine of these homes were built in the year 2000 or after. Many renters are looking for modern comfortable homes that are easy to live in and do not require a large commitment for upkeep.

A good example is a three bedroom home with one and a half bathrooms built in 2007 currently listed at $132,900. With a 25% down payment and an investor’s mortgage interest rate of around 5.5% rate, an investor would be paying approximately $770 a month for principal, interest, taxes and insurance. A quick survey of Craigslist would show that a home of this caliber should fetch a monthly rental of approximately $950-$1250. This would put you on the path to having a positive cash flow.

Positive cash flow is just one benefit of a rental property, not to be over looked are the tax benefits of owning a rental property. Check with your accountant for how a rental property could best work for easing your tax burden. Currently the near term outlook for appreciation on a rental property is unlikely the long term prospects for Bend are good. Those who took advantage of the real estate downturn in the eighties to buy rental properties are still chuckling today.

Those who are skeptical of the Bend market should remember that all of the qualities that made Bend popular a few years ago are still here, it just that a few of our warts are now more apparent. People will still want to move to Bend because of its proximity to outdoor recreation, dry climate, great beer and easy life style. Bend will never be an employment Mecca but for those who are determined there is always a way to make the lifestyle work. Maybe owning rental properties will be part of your portfolio for successful Bend living.

Interest rates and opportunity...

If you were in Bend the last time we saw the housing market take a tumble, you would have witnessed scene reminiscent of today’s struggles. Many watched as the homes they purchased in the late 1970’s and early 80’s fall in value by as much as 40%. Such a dramatic drop in values presented those with the means the opportunity for some incredible bargains, which they turned into huge profits in later years. Most folks who wanted to purchase these bargains found them unobtainable as interest rates soared into double digits preventing most from taking advantage of what was at that time the “opportunity of a lifetime”.


As history has repeated itself and “opportunities of a lifetime” are once again plentiful. Your advantage in this go around, interest rates! What once crippled the housing industry has swung the other direction to a point so low one would not have imagined it possible just a few short years ago. Since late April interest rates are at historic lows and hover below 5%. As this week comes to a close rates have remained steady with a thirty year fix rate loan coming in at 4.72%. While under writing standards are as tough as they have ever been, we are seeing folks take advantage of today’s market to seize what will be tomorrows “I wish I would have bought that…” moment.

Many industry experts had anticipated a rise in rates this past spring, yet with the stumbling of the European financial markets our bond markets have remained a strong value for investors to invest their money. Common sense would say that as the markets stabilize interest will slowly begin to climb. As the rates climb the window of affordability for buying will shrink, the ability to snap up properties at a great value may slip away.

Will you be one of those that follow past cries saying “I could have bought that property five years ago for…”? While our market will not see rapid appreciation any time soon, now is the time to buy low so in five years you will be the one selling high.

Have we hit the bottom yet?? ..... Can I sell my house in this market??

In a market that seems to know no bottom how can you get your home sold. Pressure from distressed properties in today’s market has sellers refining their sales strategy. It seems like today’s market is dominated by distressed properties and a quick look at the numbers bears this out with nearly 64% of Bend, Oregon area homes sold since the first of the year consisting of either “Bank Owned” properties or owners “Short Selling” who are their homes.


So what will it take for you to sell your home in this environment?

First realize that the prices fetched in the 2005 -2008 market will not be returning anytime soon. Take realistic look at what homes have sold for in your neighborhood recently. In most cases price is a primary motivator in the purchase of a home, having the correct price when you first appear on the market is critical to selling in a timely manner.

Appearance matters before you go to market make sure your home is at its best. Take the buyers view of your home; is it attractive from the street? When you walk in to the home is clean and uncluttered? Does the aroma from your pets dominate the olfactory senses when you walk through the door? Light and bright, clean and uncluttered is best, fresh flowers and scents are a plus when showing your home. Complete any minor repairs or other projects that have not yet been tackled. Do not forget your yard!! Curb appeal draws people in, if your driveway is cluttered people will expect the same for the interior.

Other influences will affect the sale of your home such as location, amenities, size and layout of the home. In most cases you as the seller have little control over these factors, so it is best not to stress about what you cannot change. Better to focus on what you can influence.

Now that the home is ready it’s time to get the word out!! The first month of your home being on the market is the most critical. Your marketing strategy should have a strong presentation with both words and photos highlighting the attributes that set your home apart from other homes on the market. The most powerful tool will be exposure to real estate brokers, listing your home on the multiple listing service (MLS) provides this huge benefit by exposing your property to hundreds of brokers not to mention buyers who search the MLS on the internet. Other internet tools such as Craigslist, Facebook, Trulia, Zillow, Listhub, REALTOR.com® are just a small part of the internet arsenal available to your broker to market your home.

While the market remains daunting for those who wish to move on and get their home sold, there are buyers out there for your home. Plenty of buyers prefer not deal with the headaches and heartbreaks associated with the distressed sales. So prepare well, spring is here, interest rates are still low, buyers sense that this is a great opportunity to buy that will not last forever. We will get your home sold.

Will your lender be seeking a deficiency judgment against you ….

The other day I was interviewing with a prospective client about their distressed property and the options available to them. After researching their options on the internet they were confused about whether a lender has the right to pursue a deficiency judgment against them if they were to short sell their home. Not wanting to go through the ordeal of selling their home only to have the unresolved debt stall their fresh start they asked for my take on the subject.


The first recommendation was that they seek professional counsel from a qualified real estate attorney and CPA. I then shared some of the research that the Oregon Realtors legal hotline had recently provided its members. The hotline offered that currently in Oregon since the short sale of a property is a voluntary modification of terms of the loan agreement, the new agreement can contain any terms the parties agree to. In a voluntary modification like a short sale the deficiency is the unpaid balance of the note. A note holder can sue in court for the unpaid balance of the note unless the maker of the note bargains for and gets “full satisfaction” of the note. Should the borrower get only the note holders verbal agreement to waive their lien and not foreclose that would leave the borrower exposed for the unpaid balance.

To get “full satisfaction” the borrower needs to ask for it!! Otherwise the lender is allowed to waive their lien on the property, forego foreclosure and continue to hold the note as an unsecured debt. Since the note is no longer secured by the property and has become a personal debt, the lender is no longer bound by the foreclosure laws of Oregon. The lender is now free to pursue a judicial judgment for the unsecured debt. In Oregon the statue of limitations for pursuing a judgment is ten years, with the possibility of an extension for another ten years. Just when you thought you would be rebuilding your credit in the next two to four years this dog could be following you around for the next ten years if you do not ask for and receive in writing “full satisfaction” to your lien.

You like the home but wish it had newer kitchen, larger bedrooms or a newer roof….

You have been searching and have found a property you really like but it needs a little love or maybe the rooms are too small and you want to expand them to make it the home you desire. Since 1978 HUD has provide a program design specifically for the buyer who is has found a home they like but needs some immediate attention. The program is designed to help provide a loan package for you to purchase and rehabilitate a home that has been completed for at least one year. The beauty of the program is that it rolls both the purchase price and renovation costs into one loan with a down payment as low as 3.5%.


There are two versions of this program available 203(k) and the 203(k) streamline. Both offer a loan to value rate maximum of 96.5% on the purchase and 110% on the renovation. The streamline program offers fewer restrictions, in this program there is no minimum renovation expense but it does have a capped at $35,000. All properties must be appraised prior to the loan and a value must be determined for the work to be performed. All work done must start within thirty days of closing and be completed within six months of closing. If you can keep your costs down to $15,000 no inspection of the completed work is required.

There are limits to the scope of work that can performed, slab granite counter tops won’t make the grade but a new roof, new appliances, upgrades to heating/cooling systems, flooring, new windows and much more are acceptable.

Ask your mortgage broker to explain the full benefits of how this program can benefit you! If your broker is unfamiliar with the program contact me and I would be glad refer you to a mortgage specialist who is familiar with all aspects of this great program.

Up Coming Dates to Consider

Larry Wallace over at True North Mortgage sent out an email this morning highlighting some important dates some important dates for homebuyers.

March 31st: The Fed is scheduled to stop subsidizing home loan interest rates.
It is entirely possible that they will extend the subsidy, should they choose not to extend look for higher interest rates and higher monthly payments.

April 30th: Tax credit for purchasing a home. The home has to be “in contract”, (i.e. accept offer to purchase) or lose the credit.

June 31st: Tax credit for home purchase must close escrow or lose the credit.

Spring/Summer: FHA mortgage insurance will become more expensive. The effective date is still pending.

Spring/Summer: FHA to reduce allowed seller paid closing costs from 6% to 3%. This will mean the buyer needs to provide more cash at closing. The effective date is still pending.

Missing these dates will make a home purchase much more expensive, it could even leave priced out of buying a home!!

You can contact Larry at larryw@bendbroadband.com or at his office 541-323-8783

Happy Holidays!!!

Happy holidays to all!!!

While Santa may not be bringing us a white Christmas here in Bend, he did leave early present today with eight inches of light new snow and clearing skies up at Mt. Bachelor.

This past Sunday and Monday had brought some much needed very wet snow, which has glued itself nicely over the many heavily traveled rocky areas of Mt. Bachelor. Though the coverage has improve tremendously the last few days caution still needs to be exercised on the exposed ridges that face to the south and in the trees. Rocks on the ridges and fallen trees from last year’s ice storm have left some unexpected surprises when skiing off in the Outback and Northwest territories.

All in all, the skiing has been fantastic for early season. Today with the boot top to knee deep powder shots would have to rate as one of the better in this very young season.

The rest of this holiday week looks to be mostly sunny and cold, terrific for those of you who have waited to start your season.

For those of you checking out the ideal property for your own ski chalet or future retirement home, call me. There are some awesome properties available that are outstanding values. Interest rates are starting to inch up, making now the time to make your move. I can help those of you who are looking to move up find a home and take advantage of the current tax rebates programs that are available only until this coming April.

TO ALL A HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON and A FUN FILLED NEW YEAR!!!

Jumping into the virtual tour world!!

Technology today is so amazing!!

Last week I attended a seminar on virtual marketing. Marketing by virtual touring has been around for some time and I had always thought it to be a process better left to the techies who thrive on the challenges brought on by having the newest and best gizmo. This seminar showed how far technology has come and how the software these days is quite intuitive. The ease of using this marketing tool and its ability to link to so many virtual viewing sites with just a few key strokes is amazing.

It is a great tool to share with my clients. By taking photos while we tour homes, I can present my clients with web link or CD of the properties we toured to help refresh their memory. Or for my listing clients I can provide a tour of their property for the buying public to see. Through zoom and panning movement these tours bring the property to life. The static photos used in most advertising just do not give you the same feel for a property.

It will be interesting to see what new tools will lay ahead and where they will take us.

This link will show a gallery of properties I currently have listed. http://www.visualtour.com/inventorygallery.asp?u=183639&mp=100&ss=0&s=bd&fn=rBQnhf+2r1jDR%3F8

Weathers Changing and so is the Market!!

Fall has quickly come upon us this week in Bend with dramatically cooler weather and trees that are beginning to change their colors. Just two days ago we were water skiing at Crescent Lake in swim shorts and ski vests. Today it's mountain biking with fleece tops and leggings. Yesterday brought some of the first snows of the season to the higher elevations surrounding Bend tantalizing all those who pray to the snow Gods for an early ski season.

As fall is changing our recreational opportunities the housing market is also changing. Last month our office posted the busiest month since 2007. At the heart of the activity is the influx of first time home buyers and investors swooping up some exceptional values in today's market. Many of the better priced properties are receiving multiple offers within days of being listed on the MLS.

With the first time home buyers rebate slated to expire on November 30th there is a rush to find the perfect property for those clients. It will be a tight fit for them to be guided through the process of finding the home they desire, obtaining financing, home inspections, appraisals and closing on the property before the deadline. Those who select the wrong property, wait to long or think that the rebate program will be extended most likely will find themselves left out of the party.

For investors it's finding affordable properties that will bring a good return over the years. The current market has some exceptional properties at prices that pencil out to provide great rental income. Currently bank owned properties offer some of the best values with excellent closing times. Properties in a short sale situation often appear to be great values but often come with lots of frustration in long lead times and poor communication from the third party lenders.

Adding to the mix are the return of normal home sellers who desire to sell their home with out all the drama of the distressed property sale. Many believing that we are near or at the bottom of the real estate markets free fall. While most do not see their home value returning to the illusionary numbers of 2005/06, they feel now is as good a time as any coming up in the near future to sell their home. Upon selling many are taking advantage to buy up taking advantage of the markets tumble.

If you are on the fence about getting into today's market keep in mind that the interest rates of today will not last much longer. Most all of the mortgage professionals that we work with are telling us that by the end of October we will see interest rates begin to rise and will continue to do so well into the new year if not longer.

Fall has so many great opportunities, get out there enjoy all that you can.


Bill Panton
Broker, Duke Warner Realty
1033 NW Newport Ave.
Bend, Oregon 97701
bpanton@dukewarner.com
cell 541-420-6545
office 541-382-8262
fax 541-385-3272