My Tardy Bend, Oregon Market Trends Report for January 2012

Once again I am tardy with last month’s market trend reports for Bend, Oregon.

Things are looking better here for the real estate market in Bend, Oregon. Once again we are hitting the top of a couple of “Best of Lists”. Check out these two links from the past month,

Mount Bachelor uphill from 'Beer City USA'   seattletimes.nwsource.com

http://adventure.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/trips/best-ski-towns-photos/

Bend continues to be one of the finest places to live, work and play. Local Pete Alport has put together a short Youtube video piece that helps define why so many of us choose to live here. 360 Degrees of Mt. Bachelor by Pete Alport www.youtube.com

Our local real estate market continues to recover as we bounce along the bottom. As mentioned in this blog previously it is my humble opinion that we have hit the bottom of the market. My observation through hindsight is that we bottomed around the spring of 2009 and have been bouncing up and down in small increments for the last three years.

Currently new listings are on the rise but our inventory continues to shrink. Last month there were 22 new listings above the previous month, yet overall inventory of residential homes in Bend dropped by 73 to 432 homes.

Of these listings distressed properties continue to have a smaller presence in our market. As of today (2/21/12) there are 41 bank owned, 48 short sale and 353 traditional sale residential properties actively listed. Of course this is leading to quite a bit of competition for the better priced homes. We still continue to see the seller who believes they need to recover a good portion of their investment made back in the hay days of 2004 -2006 but more often folks are coming around to the reality that those dollars are gone for the foreseeable future.

With that said now is the time to take action!! If you have been sitting of the fence waiting for someone to declare we have hit the bottom, it has now been declared so get off the fence. Interest rates are low but will not stay there for much longer, home prices are still low but our selection is limited. We see incredible properties all the time; they just do not last long. So if you are jumping in to the market come prepared. Have your funding squared away, talk to a good lender; get pre-approved for your loan. I have a couple of very highly regard mortgage specialist I can recommend. If you are a cash buyer have your proof of funds easily accessible and let’s go hunting for a property in Central Oregon.

World's Best Ski Towns - National Geographic

A little more recognition for Bend and our friends at Mt. Bachelor...

World's Best Ski Towns - National Geographic

Come and Get It….December Market Trend Reports for Bend, Oregon

The holiday season brought moderate success for retailers as people seem to be ready for some good news and are tired of the same old doom and gloom. For the housing market in Bend the news has remained the same for the past few months.


Going back to August of 2011 the sales numbers have been remarkably similar in all price categories with home under $325,000 leading the way for homes sold. With all the media coverage of a swollen distressed homes market our numbers representing the current inventory just do not support such coverage locally. The inventory numbers continue to sink with just over 500 homes offered in Bend, as recently as this past August that number exceeded 600.

By far the most active segment of the market remains homes priced $225,000 and under. This price range tends to help satisfy both the first time home buyer and the investor who is looking for affordable properties that will generate a positive return. With the occupancy rate for rental properties remaining low (around 4%), we will continue to see multiple offers on well priced homes under $325,000 as they tend to be the ones that pencil out the best for the investor who has the means to pick up these homes.

Currently 276 homes are listed over $325,000 and in this category there are some great values, they just take a little more time to discover but there is little competition for them.

As the world economic markets remain unstable look for that to affect our mortgage rates as investors look to the relatively safe Dollar and our bonds as a haven for their money. Their incoming funds may lead to a slow rise in mortgage interest rates. If rates raise look for more buyers to get off the fence and take advantage of the historic low rates currently offered. With the current low inventory of desirable homes expect the competition for those homes to increase.

To view the Market Trend Reports for Bend click here.

Is Bend Rising From the Ashes?

Two recent publications have the City of Bend rising to the top of their lists.

The Oregon Business Journal reported in an article titled “The Bend Housing Bounce” highlighted the Northwest Crossings neighborhood. Northwest Crossings has weathered the downturn better than most by providing well appointed new homes in a vibrant mixed use neighborhood. Northwest Crossings currently accounts for 21% of new housing permits issued for Bend. Joining Northwest Crossings are Yelas Constructions homes at Marken Heights and various builders in the Shevlin Pines development out toward Shevlin Park.

The Business Insider has an article “The 15 Best Housing Markets For The Next Five Years”

This article highlights 15 markets which are poised for growth over the next five years, listing Bend in the number one position. Their reasoning covers the dramatic decrease in home prices from the first quarter of 2007 and a strong median family income. It is exactly that drop in prices and a strong rental market that has brought buyers back to our market. Many see this as opportunity buy well, similar to Bend in the mid eighties. This rating comes with a word of caution in a side note about Bend’s continued high unemployment rate. The article predicts an annualized growth rate from 2011- 2016 of +11.9%.

Central Oregon offers a great lifestyle in a variety of styles, the things that made us popular before and during the boom years are still here waiting for you today. To get more information about what we have to offer feel free to contact me.

Ho Ho Ho Merry Christmas, Here are the Bend Market Trend Reports for November 2011

A friend queried me about the trend he was seeing in the Bratton report; he was concerned that the drop in the median price of Bend homes might be an ominous sign. How if we are bouncing along the bottom could the median values drop by so much? When you pull back and look at the bigger picture the market for homes above $225,000 has remained very soft while everything below that has been moving tremendously well.


This has skewered the numbers and perceptions of those who do not dig deeper for the cause. Are there a good number of homes available for sale above $225,000? Of course, are they selling? Not so much. Right now many people who might move up or those who want to sell feel the economic conditions are too unsettled for them to take the chance of making a move.

This trend also shows that those who are not intimidated by the current economic conditions are buying up the well valued homes. The greater concentration of these homes has been in the $225,000 and under price range. Many feel that in this price range should things fall a bit further that their losses would be minimal since the fall is incrementally smaller. An even greater pull is that many feel they will not see these same purchasing opportunities come our way again for some time.

As we move through the coming year the combination of a pent up need for people to move forward in their lives and economic conditions that should continue to stabilize will lead to a steady improvement in the median value of homes as the higher valued homes begin to sell once again.

To see the market trends for Bend follow the link
Bend Market Trends Report.

Bouncing Along the Bottom in Bend, Oregon... Real Estate Market Trends for October

Before you get into the holiday season you may want to check out the latest market trend reports. This is a great time to pick up property in Central Oregon.


Our local data belays what we often hear in the daily news, from the data in the reports it appears that we have stabilized for the moment. The amount of homes actively listed on the market hit a high in August and September and now is slipping back down as we head toward winter. Distressed homes have retreated as well during this period and now comprise 45% of the market with short sales being about 60% of the distressed category. As we slip back down in inventory for the winter months the overall trend has been fewer homes on the market. We are currently down sixty to one hundred actively listed homes from previous years.

Driving this stabilization trend is the continued strong interest from investors and first time home buyers in the under $250,000 class of properties. This has led to sellers receiving multiple offers on properties that represent good values and has them selling quickly. It has also been surprising to see so many cash buyers. With the tightened underwriting rules for financing properties many capable buyers are by passing today’s amazingly low interest rates and bringing cash to the table.

The investors we see coming into the market are looking at the super low vacancy rates for rental properties in the Bend area and calculating solid returns for the next few years. The other attraction is the remarkably low prices and good values on many properties. This has occurred as sellers have come back to reality of what their property is worth today and will be worth over the next few years.

The biggest hold up in the having the real estate market continue to grow is the lack of confidence that the local job market will improve and the national economy’s lingering stagnation. With the upcoming Presidential election the opportunity that our economic turmoil will turn around is slim. With housing being such a huge component of the national economy it would not be surprising to see continued new programs and new road blocks offered up by both parties to help sway voter confidence thus adding to the lack of confidence.

My take is that the market will stay the same undulating course over the next 18 months. Eventually Bend will see slight gains at first but as confidence returns so will Bends popularity. All of the things people from outside of Bend loved before are still here waiting for them and it is just a matter of time before those who hold the dream to move here act. When those who lust for Bend act on their dreams expect to see return to predictable positive gains in real estate.

Have a great Thanksgiving!!

Cheers,

Bill

Time to Fall Back... September Bend Market Trend Reports

September has now passed and the glory of fall colors is upon us. Central Oregon is ablaze with vibrant colors. The usual big storm that tends to shake and shed the trees of their foliage has passed us by leaving us with a spectacular fall. Cool clear nights warm and sunny days bless all those who venture outdoors this time of the year.

In many ways the local real estate market reflects the same, the bluster of activity expect from lenders renewing their pursuit of foreclosures has yet to materialize. Interest rates have remained low and stable with little blips upward, only to settle back down. Inventories of good homes at reasonable prices remains thin as the amount of properties listed dropped slightly from August. Right now with the low inventory on good homes it is not uncommon to have multiple offers on a property soon after it appears on the market.

September numbers across the board dropped from this year’s highs that were achieved in August. Distressed property sales in relation to total properties sold has remained in the forty percent range for the fourth month in a row. This is a welcome relieve from last year when they comprised sixty plus percent of all sales. Recently we have seen more foreclosure activity at the court house steps, these properties should appear back on the market toward the end of November.

This will be good news for investors and first time home buyers looking for good value properties. For others the uncertainty with the jobs market combined with concern for the stock market and its affect on retirement income have many buyers and sellers frozen. It could take getting past the upcoming election cycle before we see a return to confidence in the overall market.

Check out the Duke Warner Realty Market Trend Report, the Bratton Report, the Bratton Notice of Default Report and a new report put out by the Bratton Appraisal Group, the Distressed Sales Analysis Report at shopbendhomes.com.